High copper prices and high premiums: How will the copper processing industry spend the National Day holiday?

The 2026 National Day holiday is approaching. SMM surveyed some copper processing enterprises regarding their production arrangements during the National Day holiday. A total of 98 downstream copper processing enterprises were surveyed, involving a total annual capacity of 16.7348 million mt. The holiday schedules of downstream enterprises this time showed significant divergence, with holiday durations varying across different sectors, highlighting differentiated production strategies among enterprises. Affected by high-level consolidation of copper prices before the holiday, tight spot supply, and high spot premiums, coupled with uneven end-use demand across various downstream segments, downstream enterprises were generally cautious in pre-holiday stockpiling and purchased as needed. The industry as a whole showed clear characteristics of operating at low inventory levels. Details of the survey by sector are as follows:

Copper cathode rod: Domestic copper cathode rod enterprises had an average National Day holiday of 4.4 days, a slight increase of 0.35 days YoY. Earlier, copper prices staying high suppressed downstream purchasing. As the holiday approached, a pullback in copper prices drove a brief release of orders, but with the holiday nearing, spot copper cathode tightened and spot premiums rose, making raw material procurement more difficult. Downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire enterprises saw a notable weakening in stocking sentiment, and new orders before the holiday were again relatively scarce. With high copper prices and no clear recovery in downstream demand, SMM expects the operating rate of the copper cathode rod industry in October to decline MoM and fall below the level of the same period last year.

Secondary copper rod: The scope of production halts at secondary copper rod enterprises expanded, with the National Day holiday generally extended to 7 days. The industry showed a stark divide, with nearly half of the sampled capacity in a state of production suspension. Under the triple pressure of the reverse invoicing policy, financial constraints, and weak new end-use orders, enterprises were generally cautious about pre-holiday stockpiling. Most enterprises had zero raw material stockpiles, finished product inventories were generally low, and most adopted strategies of producing based on sales and operating at low inventory levels. Looking ahead to October, the industry operating rate is expected to be basically flat MoM and under pressure YoY, with only enterprises in a few regions expecting YoY growth. Future attention should focus on policy implementation details and the recovery of copper scrap raw material supply.

Copper pipe & tube: Holiday arrangements at copper pipe & tube enterprises tightened compared with last year. The sampled enterprises had an average holiday of about 3.3 days, 0.6 days shorter than last year. Some east China enterprises maintained production during the National Day holiday without shutting down furnaces but reduced production lines. Before the holiday, copper prices were at historical highs, raising the capital cost of stockpiling. Enterprises were generally cautious in stockpiling, focusing mainly on rigid order demand. Large enterprises relied on long-term contracts and imported goods to replenish inventory, while small and medium-sized enterprises restocked small amounts as needed. As the decline in home appliance production schedules narrowed and October production schedules turned positive YoY, the industry operating rate stabilized MoM and the YoY decline narrowed significantly. However, orders have not yet shown substantial improvement, and the recovery strength of the "October peak season" is expected to be mild. The industry is closer to weak stabilization than a strong rebound.

Copper plate/sheet and strip: The National Day holiday duration for copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises was generally shorter than last year. Most large and medium-sized enterprises maintained continuous production, with only a few small and medium-sized enterprises arranging short holidays of 2-4 days based on order conditions. No enterprises had long-term production halts. Enterprises mostly carried out pre-holiday stockpiling based on orders on hand, with most maintaining a normal stockpiling pace. However, affected by capital risks brought by high copper prices and high premiums, some enterprises adopted more cautious stockpiling strategies and proactively controlled the scale of raw material stockpiling. October is the traditional peak season for the copper plate/sheet and strip industry, and the market expects end-use demand to continue recovering. Although high-priced raw materials will still limit demand release, sufficient orders on hand provide strong support, and the industry maintains a cautiously optimistic judgment on the realization of the peak season.

Brass billet: Workers at sampled enterprises generally had a National Day holiday of 4-5 days, with the average holiday duration basically flat compared with last year, edging up 0.08 days. Under the dual impact of copper prices staying high and tightening supply of recycled brass raw materials, downstream stocking enthusiasm for copper billet was weak, and the scale of pre-holiday stockpiling was significantly lower than the same period last year. SMM expects actual production at copper billet enterprises in September to be lower than in August. With copper prices staying high, enterprises remained cautious about the market outlook and expect little notable improvement in demand in October.

Wire and cable: Domestic wire and cable sampled enterprises had an average holiday of 2.07 days, flat compared with last year. However, last year featured an 8-day consecutive holiday combining National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, while this year's National Day holiday is 7 days, meaning the statistical base decreased by 1 day. This implies that the actual relative duration of production halts increased. Constrained by high copper prices and high premiums, coupled with weak end-use demand, enterprises showed weak willingness to stockpile before the holiday, mostly purchasing as needed and reducing advance stockpiling to avoid inventory depreciation risks. Leading wire and cable enterprises mostly maintained production or made small production cuts to ensure delivery, while small and medium-sized factories flexibly adjusted production based on order conditions. Although the power sector has rigid orders from the power grid providing support and the new energy sector still shows resilience in demand, end-use orders have not seen a substantial recovery in the traditional peak season. The market has concerns about the pace of procurement release by State Grid and China Southern Power Grid in October, and underperformance in the peak season may become the mainstream judgment. If copper prices pull back, there are expectations for marginal recovery in orders.

Enamelled wire: The overall National Day holiday arrangements at enamelled wire enterprises changed little compared with last year, but production plans diverged significantly among enterprises. Most enterprises kept workshops running without halting production, adopting rotating shifts and reduced-load production to ensure delivery of orders on hand. Home appliance-related enterprises, due to weak demand, had holiday and production cut intensity exceeding expectations, with some order-pressured enterprises taking concentrated holidays of 2-5 days. Affected by high copper prices and high premiums before the holiday, coupled with tight regional copper rod supply, enterprises remained cautious overall in raw material stockpiling and proactively managed inventory risks. Home appliance demand recovery remained sluggish, and the industry held cautious expectations for October demand, focusing on post-holiday copper price performance and end-use demand recovery.

During the 2026 National Day holiday, holiday schedules across copper processing sub-sectors showed significant divergence. The scope of production halts at secondary copper rod enterprises expanded notably and holiday durations lengthened, while copper cathode rod and brass billet holidays extended slightly. In contrast, copper pipe & tube, copper plate/sheet and strip, wire and cable, and enamelled wire enterprises mostly maintained production or adopted rotating shifts and reduced-load operations, with relatively shorter actual production halt durations. Before the holiday, high copper prices and high premiums, combined with weak end-use demand in some sectors, tight raw material supply, and policy and financial pressures, suppressed enterprises' stockpiling enthusiasm. Most enterprises avoided inventory risks and maintained rigid-demand restocking. Overall, the recovery strength of the copper processing industry in the October peak season is limited. Operating rates in most sectors are under pressure YoY and weak MoM, with only power grid and new energy rigid demand and some peak-season sectors providing slight support. The industry as a whole maintains a cautious wait-and-see stance and a weak recovery pattern.