[SMM Analysis] The ternary EV market is expected to see a phased modest recovery after the holiday

This week, ternary cathode material prices consolidated on a weak note. On the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices edged lower, cobalt sulphate prices stabilized for the time being, and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices rebounded early in the week but with limited momentum before pulling back again on Thursday, dragging the price center of ternary cathode materials slightly lower. In terms of transactions, with the National Day holiday approaching, some producers completed order signing and stockpiling in the previous two weeks and are currently in the delivery stage; other producers made small-batch stockpiling before the holiday, with overall purchases dominated by just-in-time procurement.

On the demand side, the EV market remained weak in September, with cathode plants mainly drawing down inventory and showing limited enthusiasm for production and raw material purchases. After the National Day holiday in October, the EV market is expected to see a modest phased recovery, but for Q4 as a whole, ternary market demand is unlikely to recover significantly and will still lag the peak levels seen in Q2 and Q3. In markets outside China, the possibility of lithium battery export controls being reinstated in recent months has driven some front-loading of orders, and export orders performed well in September. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the detailed rules of the control policy; if the policy is extended again, export orders face downside risk given the ample orders placed earlier. In the consumer market, new projects for some ultra-high-nickel 9-series materials performed well in recent months, but legacy projects for traditional 568-series materials remained relatively mediocre overall.