Imports Down, Exports Up: China's Copper Cathode Net Imports Declined in August 2026 [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 22:

    According to General Administration of Customs data, China imported 210,200 mt of copper cathode in August 2026, down 14.24% MoM and down 20.48% YoY; cumulative imports over January-August reached 1.8837 million mt, down 15.22% YoY.

    China's copper cathode imports remained at low levels in August, primarily due to the siphoning effect from the US.

    By source country, in August, China imported 69,300 mt of copper cathode from the DRC, its largest supplier, down 27.66% MoM and down 41.45% YoY; imports from Chile were 10,800 mt, down 28.92% MoM and down 30.86% YoY. As market expectations over US tariffs had been building earlier, the COMEX-LME price spread widened, and global copper resources once again concentrated in North America. In August, copper cathode imports from Asian regions showed growth, with imports from China at 47,000 mt, up 309.14% MoM and up 2,603.96% YoY. This was mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio presented periodic opportunities in mid-July, prompting some cargoes to be imported from LME warehouses into China.

    In addition, typhoon weather in China in August caused persistent port congestion across multiple regions, delaying some import arrivals.

    On the export side, apart from re-exports to the US, from late July through August, the SHFE/LME price ratio remained inverted, LME showed a steep backwardation structure, and the export window opened periodically on multiple occasions, leading to an increase in China's copper cathode exports in August.

    In August 2026, China exported 50,400 mt of copper cathode, up 44.67% MoM and up 37.02% YoY; cumulative exports over January-August reached 409,000 mt, down 10.57% YoY.

    Looking ahead, the COMEX-LME price spread narrowed in September, weakening re-export momentum from China; with China's copper cathode social inventory at low levels and downstream rigid demand during the peak consumption season, coupled with the arrival of some previously delayed cargoes from port congestion, September imports are expected to rebound. However, as the SHFE/LME price ratio remained generally unfavorable from August to September, the room for import growth is expected to be limited. On the export side, the export window opened again periodically in late September, but with domestic spot premiums for copper cathode surging sharply and low copper cathode inventories leaving smelters with tight supply, China's copper cathode exports in September are expected to decline MoM.