[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Stockpiling Boosts Solar Cell Prices Slightly, Polysilicon and EVA Support Prices While Wafer Inventory Builds Up

SMM, September 22:

Wafers:

Prices: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers are 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers are 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. PV wafer prices are currently stable overall, with mainstream enterprises yet to make notable price adjustments. As the National Day holiday approaches, some enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, providing phased support for wafer prices. Cost side, the market continues to watch the trend in actual polysilicon transaction prices, and the strength of cost support remains to be confirmed.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM, with supply edging up slightly.

Inventory: Wafer inventory drawdown has been relatively slow, and inventory levels are still trending slightly upward.

Solar cells:

Prices: Today, solar cell prices for 183 and 210R held steady, while 210N edged up. The 183 price range remained at 0.298-0.301 Yuan/W; the 210R price range was 0.305-0.314 Yuan/W, with no notable change in quotes today; the 210N range moved up to 0.288-0.295 Yuan/W, as pre-National Day stockpiling by module makers boosted demand slightly. Current stockpiling demand is providing phased support for futures, but its sustainability remains to be seen. In the short term, prices are expected to hold steady with a firm bias, with focus on the pace of pre-holiday stockpiling and price elasticity under the tight balance for 210R.

Production: Industry-wide production schedules pulled back slightly in September. Incremental output from technological transformation lines at specialized solar cell plants was offset by voluntary production cuts at integrated majors amid weakening demand and maintenance-related reductions at some mainstream plants, leaving overall supply down slightly MoM.

Inventory: Solar cell inventory declined this week. Export orders for 210R continued, leaving manufacturers with relatively tight inventory; 210N saw slightly improved demand driven by pre-holiday stockpiling at some module makers, easing inventory pressure; 183 demand remained mediocre, with limited inventory drawdown. Stockpiling demand has brought an initial inflection point in inventory, but whether demand can continue after the National Day holiday is key, and the risk of renewed inventory buildup after stockpiling demand is exhausted warrants caution.

PV film:

Prices:

- PV-grade EVA:

Current mainstream spot transaction prices for PV-grade EVA resin in China are 10,500-10,800 yuan/mt, while trader market quotes have risen to 11,000 yuan/mt, further confirming earlier bullish expectations. Cost side, although crude oil prices have pulled back, ethylene and vinyl acetate prices remain at relatively high levels, keeping cost support for EVA resin intact; in terms of supply, spot cargo is tight, and traders are holding prices firm with strong sentiment. In the short term, cost and supply are still supporting the market, and PV-grade EVA prices are expected to hold up well.

- PV film:

Current prices are 5.63-5.71 yuan/m² for 420g transparent EVA film and 5.47-5.55 yuan/m² for 380g EPE film, with this round of film price increases largely realized. Higher EVA resin prices have further strengthened cost support for film, while downstream module makers, despite facing some cost pressure, have been relatively passive in price negotiations due to mid-month rigid procurement needs. Focus should remain on month-end monthly pricing results and the further impact of EVA resin price changes on film costs.

Production: This week, some previously idled units resumed production, and PV-grade EVA production rebounded; film production schedules in September saw limited fluctuations MoM from August.

Inventory: Petrochemical plant inventories are currently at low levels, while film maker inventories remain within a reasonable range.