Overnight SHFE tin night session closed at 410,090, up 0.39%, with the 410,000 level awaiting bullish and bearish confirmation [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Sep 22, 2026 08:58 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight SHFE tin night session closed at 410,090, continuing to rise 0.39%, with the 410,000 level awaiting bullish and bearish confirmation]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Overnight SHFE tin closed at 410,090 in the night session, up another 0.39%; LME tin at $53,944/mt; LME tin inventory down another 75 mt to 4,780 mt; the 410,000 level awaits confirmation from bulls and bears — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

[Futures] LME three-month tin closed at $53,944/mt on 9/21 (+239/+0.44%); inventory at 4,780 mt (-75); 0-3 spot discount at -$210.54/mt. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 409,000 yuan/mt in the daytime session on 9/21 (+3,640/+0.90%), opening at 407,490 / high 410,460 / low 406,400, with volume of 79,600 lots and open interest of 25,200 lots (-2,671); overnight night session closed at 410,090 (+1,590/+0.39%), opening at 412,000 / high 412,660 / low 408,900, with volume of 37,400 lots.

[Spot] Premiums (against October): small brands 500-900, Yunzi-brand 900-1,200, Yunnan Tin 1,200-1,500 yuan/mt; downstream users wary of high prices and purchasing as needed.

[Three-dimensional Inventory] LME tin inventory at 4,780 mt (9/21, -75); SHFE tin futures warrants at 4,792 mt (9/21, -187); SMM China tin ingot social inventory at 8,968 mt (weekly data as of 9/18, down 1,177 WoW from last Friday, -11.6%), ending the inventory buildup.

[Macro] The US Fed hiked rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% at the September FOMC with a unanimous 12-0 vote (the first hike since July 2023); CME FedWatch shows a 43.5% probability of holding rates in October and a 56.5% probability of a 25bp hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.957% on 9/21 (-3bp), and the 30-year at 5.294% (-8bp); WTI at $93.17/bbl (-3.03%), Brent at $96.77/bbl (-2.54%), with Saudi pipeline repairs and US-Iran diplomatic expectations jointly weighing on oil prices. The US dollar index was at 100.29, and all three major US stock indices rebounded.

[Fundamentals] Ore side: Production resumptions at Man Maw in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season, deep drainage, and civilian explosive supplies constraining output; Indonesia's two exchanges traded 3,610 mt in August (+3% MoM/+30% YoY); ICOMEX is planned to launch on January 4, 2027. Alphamin in the DRC had no new production suspensions in September.

Smelting side: August refined tin production was 15,888 mt (-1.63% MoM/+6.20% YoY); Yunnan 40% concentrate TCs at 18,000 yuan/mt (flat), Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% concentrates at 14,000 yuan/mt; operating rates in Yunnan Tin and Jiangxi provinces at 64.94% (-0.94pp). August refined tin imports were 2,746.85 mt (+111.88% YoY), including 2,170.81 mt from Indonesia.

Demand: In August, the SMM solder operating rate was 72.8% (flat), with production of approximately 6,900 mt; integrated circuits +20.6%, new energy vehicles +21.9%, and resilience continued in AI servers/advanced packaging/semiconductor-grade high-end solder (tin for AI use: 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030, CAGR 16%); smartphones -22.3%, solar cells -12.9%, and PV welding strips/consumer electronics have not yet fully strengthened.

[Spot Market] September 21 review: The most-traded contract closed at 409,000 in the daytime session, continued to rise to 410,090 in the night session, and the premium widened slightly. September 22 morning session estimate: The most-traded contract is expected to move sideways in the 409,000-414,000 range, with 412,000-414,000 as resistance for the week above and 408,000-409,000 as intraday support below; US Fed officials' speeches (Williams/Jefferson/Barkin, etc.) and LME inventory changes remain key intraday variables.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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