SMM, September 21:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 0.39%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.51%. SHFE lead rose 0.71%. SHFE zinc gained 0.73%. SHFE tin rose 0.96%, and SHFE nickel edged up.
In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.71%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.25%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.06%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1%.
Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was flat at 714 yuan/mt, rebar rose 0.35%, and hot-rolled coil gained 0.21%. Stainless steel rose 0.47%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.13%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper edged down, and LME aluminum fell 0.59%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc gained 0.15%. LME tin rose 0.67%, and LME nickel gained 0.49%.
In precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.62%, and COMEX silver fell 0.56%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.16%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.74%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.25%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 0.24%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.05% to 2,190 points.
As of 11:41 on September 21, midday quotes for some futures contracts:
Spot and fundamentals
Copper: Today, spot Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 900 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 640 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 110,775 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 110,615 yuan/mt, up 520 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory edged up today, with arrivals increasing slightly...
Macro front
Domestic:
[SASAC: Expand growth in emerging industries, cultivate variables in future industries, and keep moving toward the mid-to-high end of the industry chain and value chain] On September 20, the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting emphasized that central state-owned enterprises should focus on key areas and critical links, make efforts on the word "advanced," and continuously improve the innovation capability, competitiveness, and overall strength of the manufacturing sector. They should be more advanced in technology, undertake a batch of new major national science and technology projects in a systematic manner, implement a number of landmark major science and technology tasks on a special basis, promote the construction of a batch of new pilot test platforms, and achieve more high-end and self-reliant technology routes. They should be more advanced in industrial structure, expand growth in emerging industries, cultivate variables in future industries, optimize the stock of traditional industries, and keep moving toward the mid-to-high end of the industry chain and value chain. They should be more advanced in production methods, adhere to the mutual promotion of pollution and carbon reduction with quality and efficiency improvement, and accelerate the formation of an industrial structure and production method with high technological content, low resource consumption, and low environmental pollution. (SASAC）
[Launch of 2026 National Green Computing Facility Recommendation Work] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments recently jointly issued the Notice on Organizing the Recommendation of National Green Computing Facilities for 2026, launching the recommendation work for national green computing facilities. The Notice specifies the requirements and procedures for the recommendation of national green computing facilities and releases the 2026 Evaluation Indicator System for National Green Computing Facilities. The new Indicator System covers four aspects: energy utilization, carbon emission management, water resource utilization, and computing resource utilization. In terms of evaluation content, indicators such as computing power energy efficiency per unit, carbon utilization efficiency, digital carbon management, and product carbon footprint have been newly included, further highlighting the leading role of energy efficiency and carbon efficiency. In terms of evaluation scoring, the scores of key indicators such as carbon utilization efficiency, water resource utilization efficiency, the share of renewable energy electricity, and cabinet resource utilization have been raised, further emphasizing the overall requirements of green, low-carbon, intensive, and circular development. (MIIT Weibo)
[Shanghai Releases the 15th Batch of 2026 Special Funds for Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction, and Emission Reduction and Ultra-Long-Term Special Government Bond Fund Allocation Plan] Shanghai's 2026 special funds for energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emission reduction and ultra-long-term special government bond fund allocation plan (15th batch) has been released. The supported areas include vehicle retirement and renewal, vehicle replacement and renewal, industrial restructuring, optimization and improvement of household waste sorting, promotion and application of new energy sanitation vehicles, biodiesel production from waste cooking oil, early retirement and renewal of China IV diesel vehicles, repair and renovation of urban sewage mains, internal diversion renovation of external interception residential areas, and comprehensive utilization of crop straw. The plan allocates 959.536556 million yuan from the municipal special funds for energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emission reduction, and 160.914184 million yuan from the 2026 ultra-long-term special government bonds. (Shanghai Development and Reform)
[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 165 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 165 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With no reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 165 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data APP)
US dollar:
As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 100.29. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that US inflation remains too high, and the pressure has gone beyond the oil price shock caused by the Iran war, spreading to multiple areas of the economy. The inflation felt by the American public every day is far more than just an oil price issue; it exists in every aspect of the economy. Kashkari said the US Fed is increasingly concerned that inflation is not only concentrated in areas affected by the Middle East conflict or tariffs, but that signs of inflation are also emerging in the services sector. He said the Fed's job is to bring inflation back to target and it has the tools to do so. Kashkari was one of three dissenters in the July decision to hold rates steady, when he favoured a hike and warned that waiting too long could entrench inflation, ultimately requiring more aggressive action. Kashkari believes the US economy, despite facing geopolitical conflicts and trade issues, is still showing strong resilience and the labour market remains robust. He hopes that as the impact of some conflicts gradually fades, economic growth can take over as a driver, the pace of disinflation can accelerate, and pressure on Fed policy can ease.
According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting is 43.5%, and the probability of a 25bp hike is 56.5%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% by December is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 46.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 33.3%.
Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chairman Howard Marks said he would prefer a Fed that communicates less. Fed Chairman Warsh is seeking to scale back some of the guidance measures, which Warsh has previously said have constrained the central bank's room for manoeuvre in recent years. Marks said on Sunday: "Personally, I would rather see a less activist Fed. Normally the Fed should let the economy run on its own unless it faces a risk of running out of control, such as overheating or overcooling." Marks said reducing policy guidance means investors must make their portfolios antifragile, which is good for society. Marks also called for the creation of an artificial intelligence task force to study how AI will affect key areas of the economy, such as the job market. (Jin10 Data APP)
In other currencies:
Societe Generale analyst Jin Kenzaki said in a report that the Bank of Japan may hike rates once every other meeting, bringing the terminal rate to 2% by June 2027. Kenzaki said that at the press conference following the BoJ's rate hike on Friday, Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that with underlying inflation approaching the 2% target, the central bank's next focus is whether inflation will stabilise at that level. Ueda also said next year's spring wage negotiations will be a key factor in making that assessment. Societe Generale expects the solid momentum seen in wage negotiations to continue into next year. (Jin10 Data APP)
Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis has brought forward expectations for RBA interest rate hikes to September, saying the central bank governor's remarks met the conditions for further tightening set by the board in August. She acknowledged there were tactical reasons to wait, including the release of August monthly CPI the day after the meeting, as well as the potential for awkward optics if the Middle East situation eased slightly, fuel excise adjustments were made, or a weak jobs report emerged. But she concluded that the weight of hawkish commentary outweighed these factors. Westpac expects the vote to be split, citing differing views on trend productivity, labour supply, and the degree of slack in the labour market, while the underemployment rate has risen sharply. (Jin10 Data APP)
On the data front:
Today will see the release of China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity for August and the year-on-year rate for China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity for August, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: the Russian Central Election Commission's release of preliminary results for the State Duma election; remarks by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; remarks by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem; and Vice Premier He Lifeng's visit to the US from September 19 to 23 with a delegation for economic and trade consultations.
On the crude oil front:
As of 11:41, oil prices fell in both markets, with WTI down 2.21 and Brent down 1.89%. The market is focused on developments in the Middle East.
Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Rezaei said Iran is continuing mediation communications through Qatar and Pakistan and has informed relevant intermediaries of its negotiating terms. Rezaei said Qatar has conveyed Iran's ceasefire terms to Washington, and Iran is now waiting for a response from US President Trump. (Jin10 Data APP)
People familiar with the matter said Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refining clients that they will not receive any crude oil allocations next month due to an attack on the key pipeline carrying Saudi oil to the Red Sea. (Jin10 Data APP)
In addition, US retail diesel prices surpassed $6.50 per gallon for the first time, extending a war-driven rally that is rippling through multiple sectors of the economy. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Saturday local time, the national average diesel price rose to $6.505 per gallon, less than 10 days after last breaching the $6 mark. Since September, US diesel prices have accelerated notably, rising more than 87¢ so far this month, climbing almost every day and far exceeding the peak set in 2022. (Jin10 Data APP)
Spot Market Overview:
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