"HRC Prices Expected to Rise Next Week Despite Current Weakness; Baowu Raises Base Prices, Exports Improve"

Nigeria's Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owan Enoh, commended African Foundries Limited (AFL) during a visit to its Ogijo steel plant, citing its role in curbing scrap exports, local value addition and job creation, and calling such investors key partners in the government's industrial policy. Parent African Industries Group said it has invested in Nigerian mining, steel, aluminium and energy over 54 years, directly employing thousands and running certified plants in eight states. AFL, its flagship mill, runs an integrated chain from iron ore into direct reduced iron (DRI) to steelmaking and finished products. Enoh cited the group's roughly 600 million USD Kaduna iron ore project and pledged support for capacity expansion. The Nigerian Industrial Policy, approved in late 2025 and launched in 2026, targets a double-digit manufacturing share of GDP; NBS data put Q2 2026 GDP growth at 4.48% and manufacturing growth at 3.24%.

India may export 2.8 million tonnes of steel a year to the EU under initial conservative estimates, a commerce ministry official said. India has secured 1.9 million tonnes under the country-specific quota: 950,000 tonnes via the FTA partner quota and the rest under the MFN quota, above the 1.64 million tonnes in the EU's FTA text. The quota stems from the India-EU FTA concluded in January; though unsigned, steel commitments were front-loaded from July 1. The EU steel safeguard, effective the same day, grants zero duty within tariff-rate quotas but imposes a 50% tariff above them; the annual duty-free quota totals 18.3 million tonnes. India exported 3.8 million tonnes worth 3.4 billion USD to the EU in 2025-26. In-quota cargoes still face CBAM, and India seeks faster approval of domestic verifiers.

Motilal Oswal expects firm Indian steel prices to offset cost inflation for producers. In FY27's September quarter, domestic HRC rose 7% m-o-m to a four-year high of about 705 USD/tonne (62,000 INR/tonne), CRC gained 8% to about 801 USD/tonne, and rebar recovered to about 645 USD/tonne from 48,850 INR/tonne in June, signalling broad-based strength in flats and longs. Lean channel inventories, maintenance-driven supply curbs and costlier inputs drove the gains. Premium Australian coking coal rose to 300 USD/tonne from 260 USD in June; every 10 USD/tonne increase adds 7-8 USD/tonne to costs. April-August finished steel output reached 67.4 million tonnes, up 3.7% y-o-y, while consumption grew 7.2% to 70.3 million tonnes. Global crude steel output fell 0.6% y-o-y to 1.08 billion tonnes in January-July, with China down 3.1% to 577 million tonnes. Top picks: JSW Steel and Tata Steel.