[EU steel quota opens 2.8 million tonnes export window for India]

HRC prices drifted lower this week, with overall transaction performance falling short of expectations. Additionally, the US Fed's rate hike landed this week, further cooling market sentiment. In terms of supply, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up slightly. On the demand side, manufacturing is slowly recovering, and overall HRC demand has begun to pick up, though it has not met market expectations. In terms of inventory, this week SMM's survey of HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 4.6518 million mt, down 10,700 mt WoW, or -0.23% WoW. By region, all regions saw inventory buildup except east China, which destocked. Looking ahead, coke prices are more likely to remain stable next week, while iron ore prices are expected to decline, weakening HRC cost support. However, Baowu's October pricing policy was released, with HRC base prices raised by 200 yuan, and some steel mills received large export orders, easing domestic supply pressure. HRC prices still have upside expectations. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,270-3,370 range next week, drifting higher.

Nigeria's Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owan Enoh, commended African Foundries Limited (AFL) during a visit to its Ogijo steel plant, citing its role in curbing scrap exports, local value addition and job creation, and calling such investors key partners in the government's industrial policy. Parent African Industries Group said it has invested in Nigerian mining, steel, aluminium and energy over 54 years, directly employing thousands and running certified plants in eight states. AFL, its flagship mill, runs an integrated chain from iron ore into direct reduced iron (DRI) to steelmaking and finished products. Enoh cited the group's roughly 600 million USD Kaduna iron ore project and pledged support for capacity expansion. The Nigerian Industrial Policy, approved in late 2025 and launched in 2026, targets a double-digit manufacturing share of GDP; NBS data put Q2 2026 GDP growth at 4.48% and manufacturing growth at 3.24%.

Motilal Oswal expects firm Indian steel prices to offset cost inflation for producers. In FY27's September quarter, domestic HRC rose 7% m-o-m to a four-year high of about 705 USD/tonne (62,000 INR/tonne), CRC gained 8% to about 801 USD/tonne, and rebar recovered to about 645 USD/tonne from 48,850 INR/tonne in June, signalling broad-based strength in flats and longs. Lean channel inventories, maintenance-driven supply curbs and costlier inputs drove the gains. Premium Australian coking coal rose to 300 USD/tonne from 260 USD in June; every 10 USD/tonne increase adds 7-8 USD/tonne to costs. April-August finished steel output reached 67.4 million tonnes, up 3.7% y-o-y, while consumption grew 7.2% to 70.3 million tonnes. Global crude steel output fell 0.6% y-o-y to 1.08 billion tonnes in January-July, with China down 3.1% to 577 million tonnes. Top picks: JSW Steel and Tata Steel.