Imported copper concentrate TCs continue to fall, with some smelters beginning to show willingness to cut production [SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Weekly Review]

On September 18, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -$221.89/dmt, down $12.19/dmt from -$209.7/dmt in the previous period. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%.

Transaction volumes in the spot market continued to decline WoW, with some mines conducting tenders. In terms of transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore for October-December shipment to a smelter at a fixed price of -$233/dmt; a trader offered land-transported ore at an index-linked price of -$25/dmt, approximately 2,000-3,000 mt; a trader offered clean ore at an index-linked price of -$25/dmt for November shipment; a mine offered a 40,000 mt bundled ore package to smelters at an index-linked price of -$25/dmt, comprising 20,000 mt of Escondida and 20,000 mt of Timok, for November-December shipment. In terms of mine tenders, a major mine tendered 10,000 mt of Escondida for November shipment, QP: M+3, with market sources indicating a transaction price of -$301/dmt at the trader level; for a major mine's previously tendered 10,000 mt of Antamina A for November and 10,000 mt of Quebrada Blanca for December, market sources indicated transaction prices of -$340/dmt and -$353/dmt respectively at the trader level, with QP of M+2 and M+1~M+4 respectively, and gold below 1g not payable; additionally, 10,000 mt of Cuajone for October shipment and 10,000 mt of Capela for Q4 were under tender. Suppliers' index-linked deduction offers have pulled back somewhat, with most offers around an index deduction of $25/dmt. Some smelters showed declining willingness to accept current spot prices, with production cut intentions emerging. In addition, some smelters showed growing resistance to deep index deductions, turning instead to fixed prices to lock in procurement costs. Some low-priced transactions continued to drag the index lower, with spot TC remaining under pressure in the near term.

Freeport's two copper smelters in Indonesia have resumed production. The PT Smelting smelter underwent maintenance for about two weeks in August due to a furnace malfunction and has now returned to normal operations, with copper cathode capacity of approximately 342,000 mt/year; the Manyar smelter restarted feed in August and may produce copper cathode in September. PTFI expects the two smelters' combined copper cathode production to approach 400,000 mt this year.

PT Freeport Indonesia's Manyar copper smelter has resumed production and entered the production ramp-up phase. Company President Tony Wenas stated at an Indonesian parliamentary hearing on September 15 that, with the gradual recovery of copper concentrate supply from the Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) underground mine, the company resumed feeding the Manyar smelter in August and restored copper cathode production in September. Manyar previously reduced operating rates due to a significant decline in concentrate supply caused by the GBC underground mine accident in September 2025, with limited raw material prioritized for PT Smelting. Manyar is designed to process approximately 1.7 million mt/year of copper concentrates, with a designed copper cathode capacity of approximately 480,000 mt/year; PT Smelting's copper cathode capacity after expansion is approximately 342,000 mt/year. Currently, Manyar's actual production remains significantly below designed capacity, and the pace of production ramp-up after resumption is mainly constrained by upstream concentrate supply. Freeport's latest disclosure shows that GBC mine productivity is expected to recover from approximately 65% in H2 2026 to approximately 80% by mid-2027, and approach normal levels by the end of 2027. As mine-side supply recovers, Manyar is expected to further increase operating rates in 2027.

Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) announced that its Nchanga copper smelter in Zambia has officially resumed production and completed the first casting of copper anodes after the restart. This resumption ended a 106-day shutdown, during which the company carried out large-scale maintenance, repairs, and equipment refurbishment at the smelter. The latest official update from KCM confirmed that smelting operations have restarted. KCM originally planned a shutdown of approximately 60 days for maintenance at the Nchanga smelter in early June this year, but the actual shutdown period was ultimately extended to 106 days. The company previously disclosed that this round of maintenance was mainly aimed at improving equipment reliability, operational efficiency, and long-term production performance; the latest reports show that the related rehabilitation and refurbishment investment totaled approximately $40 million. The resumption of operations at the Nchanga smelter has certain supply significance for Zambia's copper industry. From June to September this year, major smelting facilities including Nchanga, Mopani, and Chambishi underwent extended maintenance, which temporarily compressed local copper concentrate processing and sulphuric acid supply. KCM is currently advancing its overall production resumption and expansion plan. The company's copper production in 2025 was approximately 80,200 mt, with a long-term target of increasing copper production to approximately 300,000 mt/year through mine development, the Konkola Deep Mining Project, and upgrades to smelting and processing facilities.

The Autonomous Bougainville Government of Papua New Guinea stated that the camp of Lloyds Panguna Metals & Energy Limited at the Panguna copper-gold mine was attacked on September 13, with staff assaulted and machinery equipment set on fire and damaged. Officials have not yet disclosed the extent of injuries or specific losses. Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama condemned the attack and stated that the government will continue to advance the Panguna mine restart plan.

On September 18, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at 11 ports of 811,000 mt in physical content, up 12,900 mt in physical content from the previous period. The main increases came from Qinzhou Port, Qingdao Port, and Nanjing Port, up 46,000 mt, 10,000 mt, and 10,000 mt MoM respectively; the decreases mainly came from Yantai Port, Jinzhou Port, and Yingkou Port, down 24,100 mt, 20,000 mt, and 7,000 mt MoM respectively.