Available supply remains tight, Shanghai spot copper premiums hit a new high for the year [SMM SHFE copper spot]

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at premiums of 660-810 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 735 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract shot up before consolidating and pulling back. After the open, prices edged up, rising to around 109,620 yuan/mt during the session, then quickly fell to around 109,400 yuan/mt. Copper prices subsequently rebounded, but upward momentum was limited, and futures consolidated, with prices rebounding slightly and pulling back multiple times during the session. Prices rebounded modestly near midday, and the morning session closed at 109,500 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front and next month contracts was 360-400 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract was between a loss of 1,000 yuan/mt and a loss of 410 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.31, up 0.41 MoM, and procurement sentiment was 3.54, up 0.62 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 660-750 yuan/mt, with Zhongjin, Zijin, and Dajiang HS quoting premiums of 660 yuan/mt, and JCC quoting premiums of 750 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm, with non-registered copper trading from a premium of 400 yuan/mt up to 480 yuan/mt, and registered SX-EW copper from Myanmar quoted at a premium of 600 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, the tight supply-side situation is expected to continue supporting spot premiums. According to SMM, from October to November, multiple domestic copper smelters will enter planned maintenance periods. Against the backdrop of persistently tight supply of copper concentrates and blister copper and copper anode, production and shipment pace at some smelters may be affected to some extent, limiting growth in available market supply. Meanwhile, port congestion in Shanghai has not yet fully eased, and the arrival pace of imported copper remains uncertain, making it difficult for short-term imported supply to increase significantly. On the demand side, with copper prices staying high, downstream procurement remains primarily need-based, with limited acceptance of high premiums. Overall, if arrivals do not increase significantly next week, spot premiums in the Shanghai market are expected to continue to consolidate at highs.