Polysilicon Q4 has expectations for production cuts, module prices maintain fluctuating trend [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, September 14:

Silicon metal

prices

Last week, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt. Last Friday, dragged by weakening macro and coking coal sentiment, along with pending verification of downstream polysilicon demand support, the most-traded silicon metal contract pulled back from around 8,800 yuan/mt to below 8,650 yuan/mt. The market remained in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with prices consolidating on a subdued note. Supply-side growth is limited in the short term, and fundamentals still provide support below.

Production

In September, operating rates varied among silicon enterprises, with some increasing and some decreasing. In September, some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang increased production. Overall, the reduction was larger, and silicon metal production is expected to continue its downtrend in September.

Social inventory:

SMM statistics show that on September 10, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 490,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions.)

Polysilicon

prices

Over the weekend, mainstream producers' expected price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 39-42.6 yuan/kg. Weekend market transactions remained relatively limited. Relevant meeting results were released, and expectations for significant production cuts are now seen ahead. However, the short-term impact may be limited.

Production

In September, multiple bases may resume production, and production will continue to increase. In October, affected by the meeting and the onset of the dry season, polysilicon production may decline.

Inventory

Market transactions are currently extremely limited, with virtually no new orders signed, and polysilicon inventory has risen somewhat as a result. Some participants are trading warrants.

Module

prices

Last week, domestic module prices maintained a fluctuating trend. Most enterprises did not adjust their guidance prices, but actual transaction prices still showed some divergence. Specialized module enterprises, benefiting from expanded cost margins due to recent cell price declines, began to edge down prices on shipments. Integrated enterprises still face high costs, and their prices remained relatively firm. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.719 yuan/W, and 0.7245 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.699 yuan/W, 0.709 yuan/W, and 0.704 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Recently, domestic operating rates have remained basically stable, with enterprises mainly producing based on demand. Delivery of centralized projects has become the main source of recent production schedules. Outside China, with the earlier increase in solar cell exports, overseas packaging operating rates have also risen recently.

Inventory

Last week, domestic module inventory edged down slightly, but distributed procurement volume has also begun to decline recently. With no large orders entering in the short term, module shipments may also decline.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices: Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 50,000-53,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,500-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,500-6,600 yuan/piece. Recently, crucible and quartz sand prices have remained basically stable. With cost support, sand and crucible prices are expected to see no significant adjustments in the short term, mainly consolidating.

Production: Recently, quartz sand production has remained basically stable. Orders from downstream demand have decreased slightly, and overall enterprise operating rates have weakened MoM. However, demand for semiconductor-grade sand, PV quartz plates, and other consumables has risen recently, with relatively small overall impact.

Inventory: Recently, domestic imported sand inventory has stayed high. In the short term, crucible enterprises are expected to mainly consume based on demand. For domestic sand, inventory buildup is still occurring in some areas.

PV glass

prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with stable prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with stable prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². Mid-month, domestic glass enterprises mainly focused on stable deliveries, with few new orders at this time. Module enterprises' procurement is expected to begin at month-end, and prices are expected to remain stable for now.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², with stable prices.

Production

Last week, one additional 650 mt/day furnace in China underwent cold repair. This week, one additional 1,200 mt/day furnace is planned for cold repair in China, further reducing supply.

Inventory

Last week, the decline in domestic PV glass days of inventories weakened again. Recently, module spot order purchases have been relatively small, and module production schedule expectations are also declining. With weakening demand, inventory still declined but at a slower pace.