SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin daytime session +1.87%, night session -2.18%, September rate hike probability rises to 69.8%, 420,000 level awaits CPI validation — September 11, 2026 (Friday)

1. Futures

LME: On September 9, LME 3-month tin closed at $55,218/mt (+356, +0.65%); LME tin inventory stood at 5,260 mt (-75), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at a stage high of 28.99%.

China daytime session (September 10): The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 425,770 yuan/mt (+1.87%).

China night session (closing at 01:00 on September 11): SN2610 closed at 414,050 yuan/mt (-2.18%). Metals broadly fell in the night session (SHFE copper -3.02%, SHFE zinc -3.22%, SHFE nickel -1.25%), with SHFE tin giving back all of its daytime session gains.

2. Spot

3. Inventory in Three Dimensions

LME tin: 5,155 mt (-105), with the cancelled warrant ratio at a stage high of 28.32%. SHFE tin: 5,573 mt (-25), with Shanghai at 1,999 mt, Guangdong at 3,230 mt, and Jiangsu at 344 mt. SMM China tin ingot social inventory last Friday (as of September 4) was 7,892 mt (-459 WoW), ending five consecutive weeks of inventory buildup and shifting to destocking.

4. Macro

US August PPI rose 5.4% YoY (vs. +5.3% expected), and core PPI rose 4.6% YoY, with inflation stickiness exceeding expectations. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting rose to 69.8% (from 60.4% the previous day). WTI broke above $100/barrel intraday on September 10, closing at 99.66 (+3.76%); the 10Y US Treasury yield broke above 4.95%; the US dollar index closed at 98.74. The US August CPI on September 11 will serve as the final key inflation report before the FOMC meeting.

5. Fundamentals

Mine side: Logistics remained constrained at the end of the rainy season in Wa State, Myanmar, with July tin concentrate exports to China at 1,077 mt Sn (-27% MoM). Indonesia's Timah exported 2,483 mt of tin ingot to China in August, with total exports at 4,564 mt, recovering to the expected range; the compliance-based restructuring of artisanal mining remains slow, and the pace of progress on the tin ore windfall profit tax is drawing attention. In the DRC, one new Ebola case was confirmed on September 3, bringing the cumulative total to 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths, with Ituri Province as the epidemic zone and ongoing operational risks at the Alphamin Bisie mine. Peru's Minsur San Rafael mine is operating normally, with June tin exports at 1,900 mt.

Smelting side: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt, and 60% grade at 14,000 yuan/mt, remaining at low levels; Yunnan's operating rate was >90%, with the two provinces' combined weekly rate at 68.14% (+3.76pct WoW). China's July refined tin production was 15,290 mt (-4.08% YoY); July net exports were 524 mt (imports 2,269, exports 1,745, including 1,763.7 mt of Indonesian tolling material).

Demand: July solder operating rate was 72.8%, at the low end of the same period over the past five years. Downstream orders weakened MoM from June, at a seasonal transition window between slack and peak seasons. Ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder enterprises mostly stayed on the sidelines, focusing on just-in-time procurement, with weak willingness to restock proactively. Tin demand for AI computing power is expected to rise from 19,300 mt in 2026E to 41,100 mt in 2030E (16% CAGR). High-end solder demand related to AI and advanced packaging remains resilient, but it is difficult to drive concentrated spot market volume growth.

VI. Spot Market and Key Judgments

On 9/10, SHFE tin gained in the daytime session amid intertwined anti-inflation and rate hike expectations, then pulled back in the night session along with oil prices and the broader base metals complex, giving back all daytime gains and breaking below 415,000. LME canceled warrants remained above 28%. Tightness outside China and the end of five consecutive weeks of domestic social inventory buildup provided downside support, but ahead of the dual events of the 9/11 CPI and the 9/15-16 FOMC, both bulls and bears remained cautious. Key Judgments: SHFE tin is expected to move sideways in the range of 410,000-425,000 yuan/mt today. Watch whether support at the 415,000 level can hold. Range trading is recommended before the events land.