SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 9

Despite industry warnings that the new rules could dampen foreign investment appetite, Brazil’s Congress has passed a critical minerals bill granting the government greater authority to review mining deals. Latin America’s largest economy holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves and is rich in other critical minerals needed for smartphones, EVs, and military drones. The bill now awaits President Lula’s signature. Lula had urged Congress to advance the legislation, incorporating it into his campaign platform centered on national sovereignty. He believes Brazil should not merely export mineral resources widely used across industries, but should also process them domestically to retain more value at home. The bill text approved by the Senate includes the creation of a special committee with the power to approve changes of control at mining companies. This means foreign acquisitions that run counter to the government’s strategic interests could be blocked in the future.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth prices overall in the doldrums, downstream inquiries and purchases cautious with limited transaction follow-through] Overall, although rare earth price trends and market trading activity weakened in tandem, the overall price decline was limited. Pr-Nd quotes continued to pull back but transaction volumes still showed no sign of expansion, with the buy-sell stalemate persisting. Within medium-heavy rare earths, trading was divergent: terbium saw increased discount-driven shipments, with transactions mostly concentrated in low-priced cargoes, while dysprosium, holmium, and erbium saw steady inquiries and stable quotes. In the short term, the price trend for Pr-Nd products still needs to be assessed against market trading conditions, and is likely to consolidate within a narrow range.

[Pr-Nd oxide futures weaken with lower offers, dysprosium and terbium metals follow the decline, magnetic material orders remain limited] Yesterday, spot Pr-Nd oxide offers were lowered in line with the futures, with more low-priced offers emerging. Downstream inquiries turned subdued, and actual transaction volumes remained difficult to increase. Dysprosium oxide pulled back slightly after several days of stability, with limited follow-through in actual deals. Terbium oxide offers continued to hold steady, while high-priced transactions remained blocked.