[Futures]LME: 9/9 LME 3M tin closed at $55,218/mt (+$356), with an intraday range of 54,585-55,445; LME tin inventory stood at 5,260 mt (-75 mt), with cancelled warrants at 1,525 mt and a cancellation ratio of 28.99%, at a cyclical high; nearly 29% of warrants faced warehouse withdrawals (Sunsirs, 9/9).
China: 9/9 the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 419,210 in the daytime session, hit a high of 420,460 and a low of 415,800, and closed at 418,440, with settlement at 417,950 (down 410 yuan vs the previous settlement of 418,850, -0.10%); volume was 99,800 lots and open interest 35,000 lots. In the 9/9 night session (closed at 02:00 a.m. on 9/10), it rebounded +1.53% to 424,330 yuan/mt; the entire metals complex rose, with SHFE copper +0.71%, SHFE zinc +1.22%, and SHFE nickel +1.04%.
[Three-Dimensional Inventory]LME tin inventory was 5,260 mt (-75), with the cancellation ratio at a cyclical high of 28.99%; SHFE tin inventory was 5,598 mt (+270), with Shanghai at 2,012 (-46), Guangdong at 3,242 (+316), and Jiangsu at 344 (flat), down 901 mt from 6,499 mt on 9/4; SMM China tin ingot social inventory was 7,892 mt last Friday (-459 WoW), ending five weeks of inventory buildup and turning to destocking. The combined total of the three was about 18,800 mt, still near a multi-year low.
[Macro]9/8 CME FedWatch: the probability of no change at the September FOMC was 39.6%, and the probability of a 25 bp hike was 60.4% (up further from 58.3% the previous day); for October, no change was 29.1%, 25 bp was 54.9%, and a cumulative 50 bp was 16.1%. US August nonfarm payrolls were +162k (expectations +56k), and the unemployment rate was flat at 4.1%, reinforcing market rate-hike expectations (UBS, Barclays, and Macquarie turned hawkish; UBS expected 25 bp hikes in both September and December). The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.761% (9/4); the US dollar index closed at 98.84 on 9/8 (-0.27%), with a 9/9 range of 98.79-98.88. WTI was $92.17 (+1.55%, up for three consecutive days), and Brent was close to $100; the US-Iran conflict escalated, with tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on 9/5-6, and Iran announcing an offshore "no-sail zone". Key events this week: 9/11 US August CPI; 9/15-16 FOMC rate decision.
[Fundamentals]Ore: in Myanmar’s Wa State, the rainy season was in its late stage, and mining and logistics remained constrained; July exports of tin concentrates to China were 1,077 mt Sn (-27% MoM), and the H2 monthly average was expected to be 1,300 mt Sn. Indonesia’s August exports of tin ingot to China were 2,483 mt, with total exports at 4,564 mt, recovering to the expected range; rebuilding a compliant supply system for artisanal mining remained slow, and the pace of advancing the windfall tax policy on tin ore continued to draw attention. In DRC, one new confirmed Ebola case was reported in the M23-controlled area on Sep 3, bringing cumulative totals to 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths (case fatality rate 48.4%). Ituri Province remains the core epidemic zone, and operational risks at the Alphamin Bisie mine continue to draw attention. In Peru, Minsur's San Rafael mine is operating normally, with tin exports of 1,900 mt in June. In China, Yinman Mining resumed production at its ore processing system on Sep 3, while the timing for resuming operations at the mining area remains undetermined.
Smelting: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt and 60% TCs at 14,000 yuan/mt, holding at low levels. Operating rates at Yunnan smelters exceeded 90%, while Jiangxi remained low; combined weekly operating rate across Yunnan and Jiangxi was 68.14% (+3.76pct WoW). July net exports of refined tin were 524 mt (imports 2,269 / exports 1,745, including 1,763.7 mt of Indonesian processing trade with supplied materials). July refined tin production was 15,290 mt (YoY -4.08%).
Demand: July solder operating rate was 72.8% (low for the same period over the past five years), with downstream orders weakening MoM from June, at a traditional transition window between off-season and peak season. The AI computing power narrative continues: tin use of 19,300 mt in 2026E rising to 41,100 mt in 2030E (CAGR 16%), with tin consumption in Chinese servers growing at an average of +29% per year from 2026 to 2030. Demand for high-end solder related to AI and advanced packaging remains resilient, but its contribution to driving concentrated spot volumes is limited. Enterprises in ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder are mainly on the sidelines, with just-in-time procurement and weak willingness to restock proactively.
[Spot Market]On Sep 9, SHFE tin consolidated on a subdued note in the daytime session, settling at 417,950; the night session saw a sharp rebound, closing at 424,330 in the early hours of Sep 10, with base metals strengthening in tandem with oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums. On Sep 9, LME tin canceled warrants ratio of 28.99% reflected continued tightness in overseas spot supply. Domestic social inventory destocked by 459 mt, with SMM domestic social inventory ending five weeks of inventory buildup, signaling marginal improvement in the spot market. On Sep 9, actual transactions were sluggish, with downstream procurement dominated by just-in-time buying of minor brands and Yunzi-brand material. Yunxi's high premium of 1,400-1,800 yuan/mt reflected that brand premiums remained stable.
![SHFE tin closed overnight at 424,330, up 1.53%, breaking above 420,000. Before the September 11 CPI release, the 420,000 level awaits confirmation. [SMM Tin Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/BaCbN20251217171752.jpg)
