Solar cell prices ease, EVA resin prices edge up [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, September 10:

Solar cell

prices

Today, the solar cell market showed a stagnant loosening trend. 210R remained temporarily stable, while 183 and 210N edged slightly lower. The 210R price range held at 0.298-0.305 yuan/W, with the center stable near 0.30 yuan/W; the 183 price range was revised down to 0.289-0.301 yuan/W; and the 210N price range was lowered to 0.289-0.293 yuan/W. This round of declines was mainly driven by leading module makers beginning to purchase from some specialized solar cell plants at a low price of 0.29 yuan/W, with low-price transactions gradually being executed. Meanwhile, leading module makers lowered their purchase expectations for 183, dragging its price center slightly lower. Low-price transactions are gradually spreading. In the short term, the price center is expected to remain stable or edge slightly lower, with subsequent focus on the support at the 0.29 yuan/W level and the extent of low-price transactions.

Production

The September production schedule is expected to be revised slightly lower from August, by less than 1%. Producers' schedules continued to diverge: specialized solar cell plants mainly ramped up production, with new production lines after conversion gradually coming online and contributing growth; integrated producers mainly cut production, with deeper cuts due to weak demand. Actual September production still needs to be tracked based on how each producer executes its schedule.

Inventory

This week, solar cell inventory continued to rise, with inventory buildup pressure becoming more evident. Traders and domestic module makers showed low purchase willingness, and upstream and downstream players remained in a price standoff, making it difficult for actual transactions to expand in volume. This continued to weigh on futures.

Module

prices

Recently, module prices have remained basically stable. On the distributed side, after transaction prices pulled back, integrated costs remained relatively high in the short term, providing support for basically stable module selling prices. However, some specialized module enterprises began to lower prices slightly due to the recent pullback in solar cell prices, offering concessions to take orders. On the centralized side, projects have increased slightly recently, but most are below 1 GW in scale. Enterprise quotes remained at relatively high levels and were temporarily stable. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7095 yuan/W, 0.7195 yuan/W, and 0.7245 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.700 yuan/W, 0.710 yuan/W, and 0.705 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

In September, domestic module production declined slightly. Currently, integrated enterprises have begun to lower production schedules due to significant cost pressure, while weak demand-side support has also curbed some production expectations.

Inventory

This week, domestic module inventory edged down slightly, as centralized project deliveries increased and supply contracted somewhat, pushing inventory levels lower.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV materials:

Currently, mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin are in the range of 10,300-10,500 yuan/mt, with resin prices stabilizing after edging up slightly. On the cost side, international oil prices remained firm due to geopolitical factors, and ethylene prices moved higher, further strengthening cost support for EVA. On the demand side, film manufacturers maintained stable rigid procurement, providing bottom support for resin prices. Going forward, attention should remain on the continued boost to costs from oil and ethylene price trends, as well as potential production schedule adjustments triggered by the narrowing price spread between foaming-grade and PV-grade materials.

PV Film:

Currently, 420g transparent EVA film is priced at 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film is priced at 5.28-5.36 yuan/m², with film market prices unchanged for now. Although upstream EVA resin prices edged up slightly, the increase has been relatively limited so far and has not yet caused notable disruption to film costs. On the demand side, downstream module operating rates remained stable in September, keeping film procurement demand mild. Overall, film prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to the extent of further increases in EVA resin prices; if the increase widens, it may provide some upward impetus to film pricing.

Production

This week, some petrochemical plants switched to non-PV materials, causing PV-grade EVA production to pull back slightly. Film production schedules in September are expected to edge down slightly MoM from August.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical plant inventories are at low levels, and market supply has recovered somewhat. Film enterprise inventories remain at reasonable and controllable levels.

PV Glass:

Prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with glass prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with glass prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². Recently, glass prices have remained largely stable, with enterprise quotes steady at 10.5 yuan/m², while transaction prices are currently at 9.7-10.3 yuan/m² due to some discounted orders. In the short term, supply continues to trend downward, while module enterprises also harbor some concerns about potential price increases. With trading volume providing a floor, glass prices will be adjusted based on subsequent production cut actions.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², with glass prices remaining stable.

Production

This week, one new kiln in China underwent cold repair, with a capacity of 650 mt/day, and the trend of production cuts on the glass supply side continues.

Inventory

China's glass inventory levels continued to edge down slightly. Although few new orders were signed this week, glass enterprises have gradually increased their delivery volumes, and with production cuts on the supply side, inventory levels have declined.