The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 417,860 yuan, with the 410,000 yuan level yet to be confirmed [SMM Tin Morning News]

The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 417,860, with the 410,000 yuan mark awaiting validation — September 9, 2026 (Wednesday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 418,870, hit a high of 422,000, a low of 416,200, and closed at 417,860, with volume of 104,700 lots and open interest of 35,684 lots, down 1,243 lots on the day. Both bulls and bears reduced positions, with bulls cutting slightly more, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. LME tin closed at $55,141/mt on September 8 (+$275/mt), with a September 7 range of $54,800-55,300, and the price center edged slightly higher. LME tin inventory stood at 5,415 mt (-55 mt), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 26.50%, a stage high, as nearly 27% of warrants awaited withdrawal.

[Macro] The US dollar index closed at 98.84 on September 8 (-0.27%). CME "FedWatch" showed the probability of a 25 bp rate hike in September rose to 60.4% (UBS, Barclays, and Macquarie have all turned hawkish, with UBS expecting 25 bp hikes in both September and December; Goldman Sachs still insists on no move this year). WTI crude oil reported $92.17 on September 8 (+1.55%, up for three consecutive days), with Brent approaching $100. US-Iran conflict escalated, as oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on September 5-6, and Iran announced a "no-go zone" outside the strait, with crude oil risk premium continuing to rise.

[Fundamentals] Supply side, logistics remained constrained at the end of the rainy season in Wa State, Myanmar, with limited tin concentrate inflows. Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt, and July refined tin net exports were 524 mt. Demand side, the tin solder operating rate was 72.8% (low for the same period in the past five years). The traditional September peak season is approaching, but downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with stockpiling expectations yet to materialize. LME tin inventory stood at 5,415 mt (-55 mt) with a cancellation ratio of 26.50%, while SHFE tin inventory was 6,499 mt on September 4 (+118 mt), remaining in a low range overall.

[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways in the 412,000-422,000 yuan/mt range today, with focus on whether the 410,000 yuan/mt support level can hold. Ahead of the dual events of the US CPI on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, the probability of a structural directional breakout is low, and intraday range trading is recommended.

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