SHFE tin closed at 417,860, down 0.24%, maintaining the 410,000-422,000 range game [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

[Futures] LME: LME 3M tin settled at $55,000/mt on 9/8 (up $20, or +0.04%, from the previous settlement of $54,980), having shot up intraday before pulling back slightly. LME tin inventory stood at 5,335 mt (-80), with cancelled warrants at 1,360 mt and a cancellation ratio of 25.49%, still at a stage high.

SHFE tin: The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 418,870, closed at 418,950, hit a high of 422,000 and a low of 416,200 in the daytime session on 9/8, settling at 418,850, up 2,010 yuan/mt, or 0.48%, from the previous settlement of 416,940; trading volume was 104,700 lots and open interest was 35,700 lots. Night session on 9/8 (as of 01:00 on 9/9): SN2610 opened at 418,870, hit a high of 420,760 and a low of 416,200, and closed at 417,860 (-0.24%). The night session shot up before pulling back, with the center slightly higher than the previous day.

[Inventory in Three Dimensions]

• LME tin inventory: 5,335 mt (-80 WoW), cancelled warrants at 1,360 mt, cancellation ratio at 25.49%, still at a historical stage high, with about 25% of warrants facing warehouse withdrawals.
• SHFE tin inventory: 5,328 mt (+208 WoW), of which Shanghai 2,058 (-24), Guangdong 2,926 (-98), and Jiangsu 344 (+330), a slight inventory buildup.
• SMM China tin ingot social inventory: 7,892 mt last Friday, down 459 mt WoW, ending five consecutive weeks of inventory buildup and turning to destocking; the weekly operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 68.14%, up 3.76pct WoW.

[Macro]

• On 9/8, CME "FedWatch": probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting was 39.6%, and probability of a 25bp hike was 60.4% (up further from 58.3% the previous day); for October, probability of holding unchanged was 29.1%, a 25bp hike 54.9%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 16.1%.
• US August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding expectations of 56,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%; market expectations for a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting further intensified.
• The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.761% (as of 9/4, prior 4.780%), and the US dollar index moved sideways in the 98.79-98.88 range.
• Oil prices: WTI held firmly above $91, and Brent rose to $95-97, mainly due to persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions (the attack on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery and renewed US-Iran conflict), with risk-off sentiment supporting base metals.
• Key events: US August CPI on 9/11, and the FOMC rate decision on September 15-16.

[Fundamentals] Ore Supply

• Myanmar Wa State: still in the late rainy season, with mining and logistics remaining constrained, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to see a significant increase; July exports to China were 1,077 mt Sn (-27% MoM), and monthly average exports to China in H2 are expected to rebound to 1,300 mt Sn.
• Indonesia: Tin ingot exports to China in August were 2,483 mt, with total exports of 4,564 mt, recovering to the expected range. However, the rebuilding of a compliant supply system for artisanal mining remains slow, and the market continues to watch the pace of progress on the tin ore windfall profit tax policy.
• DRC: On 9/3, one new confirmed Ebola case was reported in the M23-controlled area, bringing the cumulative total to 6,342 confirmed cases and 3,072 deaths (case fatality rate 48.4%). Ituri province remains the core epidemic zone, and operational risks at the Alphamin Bisie mine are drawing attention.
• Peru Minsur: The San Rafael mine is operating normally, with tin exports of 1,900 mt in June.
• China: Yinman Mining resumed production at its ore processing system on 9/3.

Smelting side

• Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs were 18,000 yuan/mt, and TCs for 60% grade were 14,000 yuan/mt, with TCs holding steady at low levels.
• Operating rates at Yunnan smelters remained above 90%, while Jiangxi was stable at low levels. The combined weekly operating rate for Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 68.14% (+3.76 pct), with upside room constrained by rigid factors.
• In July, net exports of refined tin were 524 mt (imports 2,269 / exports 1,745, including 1,763.7 mt of processing trade with supplied materials from Indonesia). July refined tin production was 15,290 mt (YoY -4.08%).

Demand side

• The operating rate at solder enterprises in July was 72.8%, low compared with the same period over the past five years. Downstream orders in July were weaker than in June, marking a transition window between traditional off-peak and peak seasons.
• Tin for AI computing power: 19,300 mt in 2026E → 41,100 mt in 2030E (CAGR 16%). Tin consumption by servers in China is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030. Demand for high-end solder related to AI and advanced packaging remains resilient, but the near-term boost to spot cargo is limited.
• Consumer electronics and conventional solder enterprises are mostly on the sidelines, making rigid purchases with weak willingness to restock proactively.

[Spot market] On 9/8, SHFE tin opened higher and consolidated higher during the day, with the center running in the 418,000-422,000 range. The night session shot up before pulling back. On the macro side, the probability of a rate hike in September rose to 60.4%, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East created upward drift disturbances. On the ore side, the rainy season in Wa State, Indonesia quotas, and the Ebola outbreak in the DRC provided hard support. Downstream players turned cautious as prices moved higher, with transactions dominated by small orders for rigid demand. On the morning of 9/9, the most-traded SHFE SN2610 contract is expected to drift higher, with attention on the 9/11 CPI data for guidance on the rate hike path. The near-term range reference is 410,000-422,000.