[SMM Iron Ore] Firmer spot prices narrow import losses, but rising freight looms

Published: Sep 8, 2026 10:01

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The average imported iron ore margin recovered slightly this period, from minus 2.43 yuan/mt to minus 0.34 yuan/mt, mainly supported by higher average spot prices.

On current fundamentals, iron ore supply edged higher. SMM data showed global shipments totalled 34.45 million mt as of the end of last week, up 14% week-on-week and broadly flat on a cumulative year-on-year basis, with volumes from Australia, Brazil and non-mainstream origins all rising modestly, South Africa aside. Over the same period, arrivals at Chinese ports came to 26.91 million mt, up 19% week-on-week and 4.2% higher year to date.

Elsewhere, SMM understands that trading in iron ore call options has been relatively active in overseas markets, pointing to continued confidence among funds in the outlook. Overall, iron ore prices look set to be driven more by fund positioning in the near term, extending a firm tone on sentiment, though negotiations remain a factor to watch. On margins, rising freight rates are expected to remain a drag, leaving imported iron ore margins under pressure in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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