US nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations intensified, pressuring copper prices [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, September 7, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,332.5/mt, dipped to $14,277/mt in early trading, then drifted higher with the price center approaching $14,419/mt near the close, and finally settled at $14,378.5/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest reached 266,000 lots, up 1,102 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish positioning. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,760 yuan/mt, hit a bottom of 108,720 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted higher with the price center approaching 109,390 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 109,290 yuan/mt, up 0.16%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest reached 211,000 lots, up 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish positioning.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Friday, September 4, Bezant Resources PLC confirmed that development of its Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia is progressing as planned, with first raw ore expected to be processed through the Tsoaxaub Metals processing plant in September 2026. Subject to completion of remaining commissioning work, processing this month is expected to produce the first concentrates from the Hope & Gorob mine, marking the project's transition to the production phase. Currently, raw ore from the first two blasts at the mine has been stockpiled and is ready for transport, camp and surface infrastructure construction at the site are both approximately 75% complete, and all mining and transport equipment has arrived on site. Major civil and structural works at the beneficiation plant have been completed, mechanical installation is scheduled for completion in September, electrical drive and instrumentation connections are approximately 90% complete, and ore sorting equipment is expected to arrive on site shortly. Alongside commissioning work, Bezant has accelerated its review of the Phase 2 expansion plan after confirming that additional low-grade mineralized material can be incorporated into the development scheme. Management is studying a strategy of using higher discard rates on the ore sorter, which could improve overall copper recovery and reduce metal losses, but would result in lower pre-concentrate grades.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 4, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at premiums of 200-380 yuan/mt, with an average of 290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a pattern of bottoming out after a gap-up open. After the open, prices quickly rallied above 109,100 yuan/mt, then consolidated higher, reaching an intraday high near 109,220 yuan/mt; prices then retreated from highs, briefly dipping to around 108,950 yuan/mt before gradually recovering. Near midday, prices rebounded to 109,170 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between adjacent months ranged from 420 yuan/mt to 500 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 480 yuan/mt to a loss of 360 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.36, up 0.1 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 3.43, up 0.44 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, purchasing sentiment in Shanghai has clearly rebounded during the day. Ahead of the weekend, some downstream buyers and traders have stockpiling demand, driving improved market transactions compared with the earlier period. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between adjacent months has narrowed compared with the earlier period, easing the rollover pressure on suppliers and reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. After some cargoes at premiums of around 200 yuan/mt were traded in early trading, available supply in the Shanghai market tightened further, and suppliers raised their quotes accordingly, supporting spot premiums. However, absolute SHFE copper prices remain at high levels, and downstream purchases are still mainly driven by rigid demand and restocking on dips, with limited willingness to chase high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the combined effects of weekend stockpiling demand, a narrowing backwardation structure, and tight available supply, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at premiums this week, with the overall center likely to edge up slightly, but upside room will still be constrained by high copper prices and downstream acceptance.
(2) Guangdong: On September 4, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 340 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 110,020 yuan/mt, up 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 109,910 yuan/mt, up 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.74, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment stood at 2.80, down 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, inventory hit a new low again, premiums continued to rise, and attention should be paid to future arrivals.
(3) Imported copper: On September 4, the average warrant price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $72/mt (price range $66-78/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $75/mt (price range $70-80/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was flat from the previous trading day at $55/mt (price range $50-60/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in September.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 4, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 109,600 yuan/mt, up 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.82, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.80. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,547 yuan/mt, up 112 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,710 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, in the first week of the traditional peak season, many secondary copper rod enterprises reported that after copper prices touched 110,000 yuan and pulled back, many end-user wire and cable enterprises placed orders actively, mainly driven by expectations of continued upward movement in copper prices. Both end-users and traders were actively purchasing, but secondary copper rod enterprises were limited by tight tax-inclusive raw material inventory, resulting in limited order intake, with production scheduled 4-6 days out.
Prices: On the macro front, US August non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 162,000, far exceeding market expectations. The market is betting that the probability of a US Fed rate hike in September has risen to nearly 60%, and the renewed rise in rate hike expectations is exerting some pressure on the upside room for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply-side cargo circulation showed localized divergence, with available supply in Shanghai continuing to tighten and the overall pattern remaining tight. On the demand side, copper prices remain at high levels, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand and restocking at lower prices. Overall, affected by the rising rate hike expectations, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM]