[SMM Analysis] September Peak Season Falls Short: High-Grade NPI Drops to 1,100, Steel Mills Still in No Rush to Buy
At the start of the September peak season, NPI prices fell to around 1,100 yuan per nickel unit, yet low-price transactions did not trigger widespread restocking. Steel mills hold ample raw material inventories, and with port inventories replenishing, finished product inventory pressure, and reduced production schedules, buyers continued to push for lower prices, with premiums for low-grade material narrowing first. The pullback in Indonesian ore prices provides a cost buffer for smelters, but their profits remain squeezed by lower selling prices, and no clear supply-side reduction has emerged yet. Whether 1,100 can serve as a support level hinges on whether steel mills can sustain purchases after low-price transactions.