[Aluminum futures extend rebound with center moving higher; spot aluminum remains stable across the board; supply growth continues to weigh on prices - SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

9.04 SMM Alumina Morning Comment

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina futures contract continued to consolidate on a strong note, opening at 2,738 yuan/mt before drifting higher. It hit an intraday high of 2,751 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly to close at 2,743 yuan/mt. The daily candlestick formed a small bullish candlestick, with the price center continuing to shift upward, extending the short-term rebound trend. Trading volume expanded mildly, rising by 19,341 lots from the previous session to 100,000 lots, indicating improved market activity and stronger willingness among bulls to participate. Open interest fell by 3,198 lots to 125,000 lots, as some bears chose to stop out and exit during the price rise, further supporting the upward momentum.

From a technical perspective, the closing price of 2,743 yuan/mt has firmly held above all moving averages: the MA5 (2,722.63), MA10 (2,704.85), MA20 (2,690.97), MA40 (2,688.53), and MA60 (2,695.95). The moving averages are aligned in a bullish arrangement and diverging upward, with the short-term technical structure clearly strengthening. The futures market is showing a bullish pattern of “volume-price coordination, bullish moving averages, and a rising price center,” confirming the short-term rebound trend. On the upside, resistance is seen in the 2,750-2,760 yuan/mt zone. If volume continues to cooperate and prices effectively break above this zone, further upside room could open up. On the downside, support is seen near 2,730 yuan/mt and the MA5 (2,722.63).

Bauxite: As of September 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at $72/mt, up $0.27/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 540 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was 590 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was 520 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 365 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 495 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was 515 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was $65/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was $60.5/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was $40/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was $71.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged from the previous trading day. The CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was $72.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Spot alumina prices: On September 3, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,676.18 yuan/mt, down 0.74 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,677.07 yuan/mt, down 0.41 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,702.44 yuan/mt, down 0.40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,699.46 yuan/mt, down 0.25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,711.82 yuan/mt, down 0.48 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,589.74 yuan/mt, down 2.92 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 3, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 46.82 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.

Warrant daily: On September 3, total registered alumina warrants stood at 249,600 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 28,576 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 20,978 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 194,900 mt, flat from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: As of September 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $350/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $33.4/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.74. This translates to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,998.23 yuan/mt, which is 322.05 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price.

Summary: Spot alumina prices remained broadly stable this week. Constrained by fluctuations in the futures market, prices held at current levels with limited movement, but the supply side continued to weigh on the market. In terms of supply, China's production increased by 15,000 mt this week to 1.718 million mt. An alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, output recovered somewhat. In Guangxi, enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, though some enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments. Overall production remained on a growth trajectory. Outside China, alumina transaction prices in Australia pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China diminished, easing overseas supply pressure and prompting a corresponding price correction. In terms of inventory, total national inventory increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. By structure: raw material inventory at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 3.444 million mt, mainly because low prices stimulated restocking; in-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased by 9,000 mt to 1.234 million mt, edging up due to the recovery in operating rates; port inventory decreased by 19,000 mt to 1.017 million mt, mainly because of increased cargo pick-up. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room to recover, and prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, constrained by futures, with inventory expected to rise slightly.

[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]