Written by: Dave Taylor
Published: 2 Sep 2026, 10:45 BST
The gold price has fallen below $4,310, but UniCredit sees structural demand lifting bullion into a $4,400–$5,200 range by year-end.
The gold price has dropped below $4,310 an ounce after a 48-hour decline of almost 3%, placing UniCredit’s upgraded forecast under immediate pressure.
Spot gold fell 2.74% on Tuesday and slipped another 0.43% to $4,309.40 by Wednesday morning.
The decline followed a surge in oil prices and global bond yields, with investors increasing their expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The chart shows a sustained retreat from $4,461.90, with gold briefly touching $4,284.34 before recovering part of the fall.
A Forecast Built on Fiscal Anxiety and Persistent Demand
UniCredit said: “We remain constructive on gold and have raised our forecast range to USD 4,400-5,200/oz by end-2026.”
From the current price, a return to $4,400 would require a gain of just over 2%.
Reaching $5,200 would demand a much larger recovery of around 20.7%, while UniCredit also sees “meaningful upside potential” towards $5,000 within its forecast period.
The bank explained: “First, central banks continue to accumulate gold, providing a strong structural anchor for demand. Second, the steepening Treasury curve points to rising concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term inflation risks, factors that have historically strengthened the appeal of gold. Third, ETF inflows have recovered, adding investment demand to an already supportive backdrop.”
That central-bank argument is supported by World Gold Council data, which recorded net official-sector purchases of 289 tonnes during the second quarter.
UniCredit’s upper forecast boundary is also close to RBC’s $5,250 average gold forecast for 2027.
Yield Shock Reverses the Gold Momentum
The weakness since the forecast was published shows that gold has not fully escaped its traditional sensitivity to interest rates.
UniCredit noted that Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech had already changed the bond-market tone: “His speech led to a strong bear-flattening of the UST curve, with the 2Y yield rising by 10bp on the day.”
Oil-driven inflation concerns have since pushed yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and strengthening the US Dollar.
This does not remove the fiscal, ETF and central-bank support behind UniCredit’s forecast, but it could delay the expected advance.
US employment data, oil prices and Treasury yields will set the immediate direction.
A renewed fall below $4,284 would extend the correction, while a recovery through $4,400 would return gold to the bottom of UniCredit’s forecast range.
