Written by: Dave Taylor
Published: 1 Sep 2026, 17:45 BST
RBC still sees the gold price grinding towards $5,000 despite the latest selloff, with investor and central-bank flows underpinning its high-conviction view.
The Gold price fell sharply again on Tuesday, with our XAU/USD rate around $4,355, down 2.1% on the day after ending August near $4,450.
RBC Capital Markets is sticking with a substantially higher path.
“We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year,” RBC said, describing that view as “unchanged and with high conviction”.
By year-end, the bank is “leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz)”, while for 2027 it favours a high scenario averaging $5,296.
That bullish stance survived Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole shock.
“Warsh's Jackson Hole comments did see gold decline, but it's unclear to us if anything for gold has truly changed,” RBC said.
The bank argues that stress in the US Treasury market is actually “a bigger positive for gold, outweighing the potential impact of current elevated yields”.
That claim is being tested now.
Gold dropped to a two-week low on Tuesday as US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened and markets lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to around 66%. Reuters reported spot gold falling more than 2%.
Investor Flows Keep RBC Bullish
The stronger part of RBC's case is the return of actual buying.
“Q3-to-date has seen the tide turn,” the bank said, with gold-backed ETP inflows surging since mid-July and particularly quickly through August.
“All regions have seen positive inflows over the past month,” while RBC expects 208 tonnes of net ETP inflows in 2026.
Central banks remain important too.
“We expect 745 tons of official sector demand this year,” RBC said, with slightly more forecast for 2027.
We saw the first evidence of that renewed investor demand in our recent look at RBC's gold-flow data, when ETF holdings and speculative positioning were already turning higher.
RBC's conclusion is unusually direct:
“Gold did not just fall out of a coconut tree, it exists in the context of concern, uncertainty, and an uneven macro landscape.”
“We still think the $4500-5000/oz range is the sweet spot for gold for the medium term,” with the bank “grinding towards $5000/oz before year-end and higher in 2027.”
At $4,355, that forecast now implies a meaningful rebound.
The next test is whether stronger yields keep forcing liquidation, or whether RBC is right that the Dollar, debt concerns and renewed investor flows have become more important than rates alone.
