SMM, September 3:
In August 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,731 yuan/mt, up 14 yuan/mt MoM; the weighted average cash cost was 2,558 yuan/mt. The cost continued its upward trend in August, driven mainly by both ore and energy: ore costs edged up, imported ore prices rose mildly, and domestic ore stayed high; on the energy cost side, coal prices remained at relatively high levels due to earlier events, providing support to the energy component; caustic soda showed regional divergence, with mixed performance across regions and an overall basically stable MoM change. Overall, ore and energy contributed growth on the cost side, caustic soda had a neutral impact, and total costs edged up slightly.
By cost component:
Bauxite: overall ore costs edged up in August. For imported ore, prices from different countries generally rose by about $1/mt, a relatively mild increase; combined with higher overseas freight and a slight MoM contraction in the US dollar exchange rate from July, landed costs were still pushed up to some extent. Domestic ore remained stable at high levels, with prices flat MoM. From the supply side, although it was still the traditional rainy season, this year's rainy season had relatively limited disruption to shipments. Overall bauxite shipments surged 41% MoM in August, significantly expanding supply. Under the combined effect of downstream pressure for lower prices and ample supply, the upward momentum in ore costs was effectively contained.
Caustic soda and energy: on the energy cost side, coal prices remained at relatively high levels overall due to earlier events, providing sustained support to alumina energy costs. The caustic soda market showed a clear regional divergence pattern: in August, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda in Guangxi was cut by 150 yuan/mt, while purchase prices in Shanxi and Henan in the north rose by 50–100 yuan/mt respectively. Overall, prices were basically stable MoM, with a relatively neutral impact on August costs. Entering September, pressure on the caustic soda side has increased: the purchase price of liquid caustic soda in Guangxi was raised by 50 yuan/mt, Shanxi rose by 70 yuan/mt, and Henan rose by 50 yuan/mt. Caustic soda costs are expected to gradually strengthen in September, creating new growth on the alumina cost side.
Overall, with ore costs rising mildly, energy costs staying high, and caustic soda prices gradually strengthening, the national weighted average full cost of alumina in September is expected to range from 2,730 to 2,850 yuan/mt, and the weighted average cash cost is expected to be in the range of 2,550–2,670 yuan/mt.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
Data source: SMM
(Zhao Baichuan 021-51666812)
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