SMM, September 3:
Raw material side: This week, domestic petroleum coke market trading was moderate, with the overall price center holding up well and indicators generally rising across the board. Refinery-wise, CNOOC's petroleum coke prices at various plants were mixed, with adjustments concentrated in the range of 50-100 yuan/mt; PetroChina's low-sulphur coke prices in north-east China edged up 10-30 yuan/mt, while shipments in north-west China were steady; Sinopec refineries saw smooth shipments of anode-grade coke, with its petroleum coke quotes extending the upward trend. Local refineries overall saw moderate shipments with mixed price changes, with some following the majors in raising quotes while others cut prices under shipment pressure. The latest SMM data shows the north-east China 1# petroleum coke spot price index at 4,635.46 yuan/mt, up 0.29% WoW; the Shandong 2# petroleum coke spot price index at 4,304.37 yuan/mt, up 0.23% WoW; the Shandong 3# petroleum coke spot price index at 3,778.07 yuan/mt, up 0.95% WoW; the Shandong 4# petroleum coke spot price index at 2,289.12 yuan/mt, up 3.93% WoW; and the north-west 3# petroleum coke spot price index at 4,202.47 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Recently, some domestic refineries completed maintenance and resumed operations, with domestic supply growth gradually being released and further growth still expected ahead; port petroleum coke continued its destocking pattern, with imported coke arrivals at a steady pace. Downstream carbon industry purchasing interest remained intact, with demand showing structural divergence: anode materials entered the "September peak season" stockpiling window, with steady rigid demand for low-sulphur coke; aluminum enterprises maintained high-load operations, providing a floor for medium-sulphur coke. Although supply has increased somewhat, the start of the month saw downstream sectors gradually stockpiling and restocking, with purchasing interest continuing and overall demand performing well, effectively offsetting coke prices. By product, low-sulphur coke was supported by rigid demand from the anode "September peak season," showing strong resilience and more likely to rise than fall; medium- and high-sulphur coke were boosted in the short term by early-month restocking, but will gradually face pressure from domestic supply growth, with relatively limited upside room. Taking both supply and demand into account, domestic petroleum coke prices are expected to maintain a divergent but firm pattern in the near term. This week, coal tar pitch market trended firm. As of Thursday this week, the average coal tar pitch price was 5,468 yuan/mt, up 1.67% from last Thursday. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode strengthened this week.
Supply side: Prebaked anode enterprises continued to produce based on sales, with new projects in Xinjiang, Guangxi and other regions coming on stream one after another and new capacity being released continuously; some enterprises saw operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but the industry's overall supply capability improved steadily. Demand side: China's operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing stable and rigid support for anode consumption. In exports, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to ramp up, driving China's anode exports to improve. Overall, high aluminum operating rates effectively underpinned domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally, but the concentrated release of new capacity made supply growth slightly faster than demand growth, intensifying market competition.
Brief comment: This week, China's prebaked anode raw material side held up well, and the industry's overall production cost continued to move higher. According to SMM data, as of September 3, China's prebaked anode production cost was recorded at 5,852.46 yuan/mt, up 1.79% WoW from last Thursday. In terms of prices, China's prebaked anode prices mainly rose in September: a large aluminum smelter in Shandong raised its September prebaked anode tender price by 100 yuan/mt MoM, and a major domestic prebaked anode seller raised its quotation by 182 yuan/mt MoM, with cost pass-through to downstream proceeding smoothly. Looking ahead, cost support is relatively strong—petroleum coke market center held up well with grade divergence, and coal tar pitch prices were strongly lifted by raw material support, so overall raw materials provided strong support for anode prices; however, the concentrated release of new industry capacity made supply growth faster than demand growth, further intensifying market competition. Going forward, close attention should be paid to supply-demand pattern changes and price trends of prebaked anodes and their upstream raw materials.
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