SMM, September 3, 2026:
Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a sustained upward trend. Although copper prices rose significantly this week, the availability of spot cargo in the market was extremely limited (inventory has fallen below 10,000 mt and continued to hit new lows for the year), which prompted suppliers to actively hold prices firm when selling. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 220 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong stood at Guangdong being 50 yuan/mt higher, a relatively small spread that did not trigger inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 8,000 mt, down 5,300 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 1,300 mt, down 1,100 mt WoW. In detail: This week, warehouse arrivals were 9,200 mt/week, down 2,300 mt/week WoW, far below the annual average (14,000 mt/week), mainly due to export activity by domestic smelters and limited arrivals of imported copper. Warehouse withdrawals were 14,500 mt/week, down 3,900 mt WoW, in line with the annual average (14,200 mt/week). The sharp rise in copper prices led to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises, with procurement volume lower than last week.
Looking ahead to next week, arrivals of domestic copper cathode are expected to remain low, but arrivals of imported copper will increase, with total supply expected to edge up, while downstream consumption is expected to be only slightly better than this week. As a result, inventory will remain tight, and spot premiums are expected to stay high.
(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not rely on this information as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)
