[SMM Analysis] Domestic Ternary Cathode Production Schedules for September Cut Significantly

This week, ternary material prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. On the raw material side, nickel sulfate prices remained weak, cobalt sulfate prices held stable, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices corrected for consecutive sessions after rising sharply early in the week. Lithium salts are still in a phase of pronounced volatility, and manufacturers remained rather cautious in placing orders.

In terms of transactions, as raw material prices fluctuated sharply, cell makers remained reluctant to restock, and market transactions stayed relatively subdued, mainly centering on the execution of existing orders.

On the demand side, leading ternary cell makers have recently cut their orders for September and the fourth quarter sharply, with medium- and high-nickel material orders particularly affected, mainly because sales of some domestic high-end vehicle models fell short of expectations. Given their sufficient raw material inventories, cell makers proactively slowed their pickup pace. Coupled with the accumulation of finished goods inventories at cathode makers in the earlier stage, cathode makers are likely to prioritize inventory consumption and hold off on new production in the near term, dragging down domestic ternary cathode production schedules for September.

In terms of overseas demand, influenced by expectations that export controls on lithium batteries will soon be reinstated, orders for high-nickel materials remained at elevated levels recently. The consumer electronics market remained lackluster, even showing signs of a further mild downturn; meanwhile, the official restoration of export tax rebates for lithium batteries also weighed on short-term delivery paces.