9.03 SMM Alumina Morning Comment
Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina futures contract consolidated on a weak note, opening at 2,700 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 2,710 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, and dipping to an intraday low of 2,688 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 2,695 yuan/mt. The full-day fluctuation was only 22 yuan/mt, with rebound momentum clearly weakening. Trading volume shrank sharply, falling 31,803 lots from the previous trading day to 66,559 lots, as market trading enthusiasm cooled rapidly and bulls showed insufficient willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Open interest decreased by 1,961 lots to 134,000 lots, with some funds choosing to take profits and exit, and wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensifying again. From a technical perspective, the current closing price of 2,695 yuan/mt is below the MA5 (2,698.41) but still above the MA10 (2,687.89), MA20 (2,680.77), MA40 (2,683.59), and MA60 (2,693.27). The short-term moving average has shifted from support to resistance, while the medium-term moving averages continue to provide support below, presenting a consolidation pattern of "short-term pressure above and medium-term support below." Overall, after the previous day's volume-driven breakout, the market failed to sustain its strength, with futures showing consolidation characteristics of "contracting volume pullback, declining open interest, and a slight downward shift in the price center." Going forward, close attention should be paid to whether the 2,700 yuan/mt psychological level can be held. If volume continues to shrink and the market fails to effectively reclaim 2,700 yuan/mt, further pullback pressure may emerge in the short term. Support below is seen near the MA60 (2,693.27) and MA10 (2,687.89).
Bauxite: As of September 2, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $71.75/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was reported at 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was reported at $65/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was reported at $58.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $40/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $71.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was reported at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was reported at $62.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was reported at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was reported at $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day. The CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was reported at $72.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Alumina spot: On September 2, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,676.92 yuan/mt, up 0.50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,677.48 yuan/mt, up 0.34 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,702.84 yuan/mt, up 0.86 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,699.71 yuan/mt, up 0.49 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,712.30 yuan/mt, up 0.89 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,592.66 yuan/mt, up 0.85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 2, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 40.08 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest traded price as of 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 2, total registered alumina warrants stood at 249,600 mt, up 5,699 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 28,576 mt, up 1,202 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 20,978 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 194,900 mt, up 4,497 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: On September 2, the Western Australian alumina FOB price stood at $350/mt; the USD/CNY exchange rate stood at 6.74; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $31.8/mt. Converted to an EXW price at major Chinese ports of approximately 2,987.39 yuan/mt, this was 310.47 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: The current alumina market remains characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with prices falling under pressure and overall bearish sentiment in the spot market. On the supply side, production continues to recover, with domestic production up MoM recently and Guangxi steadily ramping up. Combined with production resumptions in Shanxi this month and the imminent release of new capacity in Guangxi, expectations of supply growth continue to weigh on prices. Outside China, the supply mismatch logic that previously supported high prices is gradually weakening, and prices outside China have pulled back. Net imports in July fell MoM, easing import pressure on the Chinese market to some extent. On the inventory side, the inventory buildup trend persists: aluminum smelters restocked in small volumes at low prices, port inventories climbed to historical highs, plant inventories rose alongside production increases, while warrants and in-transit inventory saw some destocking. Looking ahead, supply-side pressure is only increasing, demand remains lackluster, prices still have downside room, and the inventory buildup trend is expected to continue.
[Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
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