Today, SMM's 10:00 price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) is 16,025 yuan/kg, with the premium/discount quotation range from TD-10 yuan/kg to parity, and a weighted average price of -4.45 yuan/kg.
On the macro front, bullish factors were released in a concentrated manner yesterday: US August ADP employment increased by only 38,000, below market expectations; New York Fed President Williams said inflation trends are slowly declining and current interest rates are appropriate; the Beige Book noted that the economic outlook is generally positive but uncertainty is rising, with an overall dovish tone that weighed on rate hike expectations. In addition, the yen surged suddenly on Wednesday, triggering speculation of Japanese forex market intervention, and the US dollar index fell sharply in tandem. Precious metals futures gained support from bulls and rebounded slightly, but the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remained high, limiting the rebound.
In the spot market, after silver prices rose again, today's trading was slightly weaker than yesterday's morning session. The spot-futures price spread changed little from yesterday, with trader offers concentrated around a discount of 40 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract. Bargaining room was limited, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and transactions were mainly in small volumes. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly concentrated near a discount of 5 yuan/kg to parity, with weak trading and a relatively narrow quotation range. Today's premium/discount quotes against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were at a discount of 45 to 35 yuan/kg.
Overall, precious metals rebounded slightly in the short term but remain pressured by rate hike expectations, and this Friday's non-farm payrolls data deserves close attention. In the spot market, trading was hindered today, and market offers remained at a small discount.
