Solar Cell Inventory Buildup Signs Emerge; September Glass New Order Quotes Raised Across the Board [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, September 3:

Solar cell

prices

Solar cell market conditions continued their subdued downward trend today, with overall market sentiment remaining weak. The 210R quotation center continued to move lower, with the price range revised down to 0.303-0.313 yuan/W; the 183 price range narrowed in tandem to 0.305-0.315 yuan/W; 210N extended its weakening pace, with the price range revised down to 0.298-0.304 yuan/W. All three price tiers continued to shift lower in tandem, with 183 and 210R market quotations and actual transactions still mostly concentrated in the 0.31-0.32 yuan/W range. Downstream module enterprises held low purchasing expectations, with psychological price levels concentrated at 0.30-0.31 yuan/W. Mainstream quotations for 210N were in the 0.3-0.31 yuan/W range, but low prices of 0.295 yuan/W had already emerged. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, overall purchasing volume remained insufficient, solar cell enterprises faced a scarcity of new orders, and signs of inventory buildup gradually emerged. In the short term, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers will persist, and prices are likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Subsequent market trends will need to track substantive volume-driven transactions to confirm bottom support.

Production

September production schedule expectations edged down slightly from August, with clear divergence among manufacturers. Some newly retrofitted production lines at specialized solar cell plants have gradually been put into use, with localized production ramp-up actions; integrated plants, affected by weak demand, implemented production cuts that exceeded the ramp-up at specialized plants. The combined effect led to a slight decline in overall September production schedules, but actual subsequent supply conditions still need to track the pace of implementation at each enterprise.

Inventory

This week, signs of solar cell inventory buildup emerged. After traders continued to slow their purchasing pace, domestic module plants purchased relatively little amid wait-and-see market sentiment. The overall slowdown in shipment pace drove inventory into a buildup channel, correspondingly weakening fundamental support for futures.

Module

prices

This week, mainstream module prices in China remained basically stable. On the distributed side, recent guidance prices were largely unchanged, and earlier localized declines in transaction prices have not yet affected the overall industry center. With effective cost support in the short term, module prices are expected to basically consolidate. On the centralized side, there were relatively few projects exceeding 1 GW recently, and enterprise bid prices were basically within the 0.68-0.72 yuan/W range, with little change expected in the short term as delivery of existing orders remains the priority. Overall, module prices are expected to remain largely in the doldrums in the near term, barring policy-related impacts. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.711 yuan/W, 0.720 yuan/W, and 0.726 yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.7005 yuan/W, 0.7105 yuan/W, and 0.706 yuan/W respectively.

Production

In September, scheduled production of domestic module enterprises declined slightly by 1-2 GW, mainly due to weakening distributed purchase demand, while centralized project deliveries continued to underpin overall production schedules.

Inventory

This week, domestic module inventory edged down slightly. As transaction prices declined, buyers who had previously shown strong resistance began to make purchases.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/PV-grade POE:

Currently, mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin range from 10,100 to 10,350 yuan/mt, with overall spot market conditions remaining stable. On the cost side, ethylene prices have been steady to higher, providing some cost support for resin. On the supply side, production resumptions at leading petrochemical plants are running stably, and in September, producers continue to tilt production schedules toward PV-grade material. It is expected that after mid-month, supply release pressure will become more pronounced. Demand from the foaming downstream has yet to recover significantly, not enough to drive enterprises to shift production away from PV-grade material on a large scale. On the demand side, film manufacturers are making rigid purchases, which also underpins the market. Overall, short-term PV-grade EVA prices are likely to remain in a sideways consolidation pattern for now.

PV Film:

Currently, 420g transparent EVA film is transacted at 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film at 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². Film market quotes have shown no significant adjustments. September monthly pricing has been settled, and the sideways trend in upstream EVA resin prices provides solid cost support for film. Downstream module enterprises' September operating rates changed little MoM, and film deliveries remain primarily rigid, following module production schedules. Short-term prices are unlikely to see wild swings. Going forward, focus on the actual implementation of module production schedules, as well as changes in upstream resin supply-demand patterns and their transmission to the film segment.

Production

This week, some petrochemical plants switched production to PV-grade material, and PV-grade EVA production edged up. Film production schedules in September are expected to pull back slightly from August.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical plant inventories are running at low levels, and market circulation of goods has recovered somewhat from the earlier period. Film manufacturers' inventories are operating within a reasonable and controllable range.

PV Glass:

Prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with glass prices rising.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with glass prices rising.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². This week, glass enterprises raised their quotes, and new industry order quotes were generally raised to 10.5 yuan/m². As supply-side production cuts continue to take effect, there is not much room left for glass price concessions, and low-price orders are increasingly being held back from selling. In terms of module procurement, as most enterprises had largely depleted their raw material glass inventory in the earlier period, they began entering the market to purchase at the end of August, and stockpiling sentiment rose to a certain extent, which overall boosted the market trading atmosphere. However, price acceptance still requires further negotiation.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², and glass prices have risen.

Production

This week, two kilns in China underwent cold repair, involving a capacity of 2,200 mt/day. It is expected that two more kilns will enter cold repair in the near term, with this round of production cuts expected to exceed 6,000 mt/day.

Inventory

Domestic glass inventory levels have begun to decline. The entry of module enterprises into the market for stockpiling, along with the decline in supply-side production, has made glass shipments relatively smooth, and inventory shows a trend of accelerating decline.