Guangdong copper cathode inventories fall for 12 consecutive sessions, spot premiums keep rising

Geopolitical conflicts intensified on the macro front, coupled with rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, driving the US dollar index higher and putting copper prices under pressure. However, LME near-month contracts showed a deep backwardation structure, causing the price spread between the two markets to reverse. As of press time, the COMEX 2609 contract traded at a discount of about $88/mt to the LME 3M contract.

The 2026 semi-annual report disclosure season has concluded, and publicly listed firms across China's copper foil industry chain delivered impressive interim results. Driven by the combined demand resonance of continued growth in ESS installations, rising NEV penetration rates, and accelerating AI computing infrastructure construction, the industry has emerged from a two-year trough and entered an upward cycle of "rising volumes and prices." ......

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,240/mt, swung wildly in early trading to hit a high of $14,280/mt, then the price center fell sharply, dipping to $14,185/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,192.5/mt, down 0.65%, with trading volume of 21,000 lots and open interest of 265,000 lots, a decrease of 4,800 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,500 yuan/mt, with the price center falling sharply in early trading to a low of 108,150 yuan/mt, then drifting higher to reach 108,750 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 108,610 yuan/mt, down 0.83%, with trading volume of 51,000 lots and open interest of 217,000 lots, a decrease of 7,406 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.