Imported arrivals ease supply tightness, Shanghai premium center moves down [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,240/mt, shot up to $14,280/mt in early trading amid wild swings, then the price center fell sharply, dipping to $14,185/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $14,192.5/mt, down 0.65%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest stood at 265,000 lots, down 4,800 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,500 yuan/mt, dipped to 108,150 yuan/mt in early trading as the price center fell sharply, then drifted higher to 108,750 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at 108,610 yuan/mt, down 0.83%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, and open interest stood at 217,000 lots, down 7,406 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Chile's National Statistics Institute (INE) said on Monday that the country, the world's largest copper producer, saw copper production fall 9.4% YoY in July to 403,424 mt, down from 445,322 mt in the same period last year, as severe storms hit mining operations. INE said in a report that the decline in copper mining and processing volumes was due to "adverse weather conditions in the northern part of the country, which hindered normal production processes." The agency added that maintenance work was also carried out at large mines in major mining areas during July.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 1, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at 400-590 yuan/mt, with an average of 495 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract retreated after a rapid rise and then consolidated. After the opening, prices rose quickly, reaching a high of around 110,280 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure at highs, dipping to around 109,790 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded slightly and consolidated mainly around 109,900 yuan/mt. Near midday, prices settled at around 109,880 yuan/mt. The Back month spread ranged from 390 yuan/mt to 470 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 1,240 yuan/mt to a loss of 1,160 yuan/mt. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.33, up 0.1 MoM, while purchase sentiment was 3.15, down 0.35 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, SHFE copper absolute prices are expected to stay high, and the Back month spread has narrowed significantly from earlier levels, weakening suppliers' basis for holding prices firm. Some suppliers proactively lowered quotes to facilitate transactions, driving spot premiums down rapidly. Meanwhile, some imported cargoes have been arriving at ports recently, increasing the available supply in the Shanghai market and marginally easing the tight supply situation. On the demand side, high copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchase willingness, with purchase sentiment clearly pulling back during the day. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on a need-to basis and showed limited acceptance of high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the narrowing Back spread, increased imported arrivals, and stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at premiums today, but the overall center may continue to edge lower.
(2) Guangdong: On September 1, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 190 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 110,260 yuan/mt, up 1,335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 110,150 yuan/mt, up 1,335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.59, up 0.07 from the previous trading day, and the selling sentiment stood at 2.89, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed in the database). Overall, copper prices and premiums both rose, while spot trades were quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On September 1, the average warrant price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $72/mt (price range: $64-80/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $70/mt (price range: $60.5-80/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was flat from the previous trading day at $30/mt (price range: $20-40/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in September.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 1, as of 11:30, the futures closing price was 109,880 yuan/mt, up 730 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 495 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials rose to 2.92, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.73. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,204 yuan/mt, down 1,206 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,100 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices quickly pulled back after breaking through 110,000 yuan/mt. With the traditional peak season in September approaching, many secondary copper rod enterprises increased their raw material stockpiling demand. Meanwhile, after copper prices rose, many secondary copper raw material traders sold off their copper scrap holdings. With sentiment warming among both sellers and buyers, secondary copper raw material transactions were relatively active during the day.
Prices: On the macro front, US forces struck Iranian airports and coastal areas, and Trump threatened to "completely wipe out" Iran if it retaliated; Iran responded with missiles and accused the US of breaching the agreement, and two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian and Iranian presidents met and noted that the ceasefire is fragile, the US Treasury Secretary said sanctions would be intensified and "bypass routes" promoted, and US Fed's Barr hinted that decisive rate hikes would be needed if inflation does not cool. Escalating geopolitical conflicts combined with hawkish signals strengthened the US dollar and put copper prices under pressure. Fundamentals-wise, supply side, imported cargoes have been arriving at ports, increasing available supply and marginally easing market supply. Demand side, copper prices remained high and spot premiums pulled back somewhat, with downstream users making just-in-time procurement only, providing limited actual demand support. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM.]