[SMM survey] Profit pressure limits production resumption momentum, with limited room for hot metal growth in September

Published: Sep 1, 2026 14:35
According to SMM survey data, the daily average pig iron production in August increased by more than 20,000 mt compared with July. The daily average hot metal production in September is expected to edge up.

According to SMM tracking survey data, in August, steel mills across China brought a total of 17 blast furnaces under new maintenance, reducing daily hot metal output by approximately 92,700 mt. The maintenance was concentrated in north China and north-east China. Meanwhile, 17 blast furnaces resumed production, adding approximately 82,400 mt of daily hot metal output. The resumptions were also concentrated in north China and north-east China. The blast furnace maintenance was mainly driven by steel mill losses and the concentrated execution of annual routine maintenance plans. SMM survey data shows that blast furnace maintenance in August resulted in a net reduction of 6.3831 million mt in hot metal production, up 680,000 mt MoM from July. According to SMM daily average hot metal production data, the daily average pig iron output in August fell by more than 20,000 mt compared with July.


Source: SMM

According to the latest SMM survey data, in September 2026, steel mills across China plan to place a total of five blast furnaces under new maintenance, mainly in north China, with an estimated daily hot metal reduction of approximately 24,600 mt. Over the same period, 11 blast furnaces are planned to resume production, theoretically adding approximately 51,000 mt of daily hot metal output. Overall, blast furnace maintenance in September is expected to reduce cumulative hot metal production by 5.66 million mt, but the daily average hot metal output is still expected to edge up by approximately 23,000 mt MoM from August.

However, given that the current peak-season characteristics of end-use demand are not yet evident, coupled with the continued rise in coke prices, steel mill profit margins have narrowed, and some blast furnaces originally scheduled to resume production may face delays. In addition, steel mills in north China may initiate production cuts due to mounting losses, and the pace of blast furnace production resumptions in September is expected to fall short of expectations, with limited actual growth in hot metal output and relatively mild overall increases.


Source: SMM

We welcome everyone to follow the 242-sample blast furnace operating rate and daily average hot metal production data released by SMM every Wednesday:

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

Images in this article contain AI-translated captions for reference only.

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