Producers’ Losses Worsened; SiMn Market Unlikely to Break Out of Consolidation in the Short Term Amid Steel Tender Push for Lower Prices [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the north China market was 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Friday; SiMn 6517 (cash) in the south China market was 5,750-5,800 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Friday, and SiMn 6014 (cash) in the south China market was 5,350-5,450 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Friday.

Recently, SiMn futures consolidated on a strong note, the market’s pessimism eased somewhat, and wait-and-see sentiment still dominated.

Cost side: ore, manganese ore spot prices saw relatively small changes; electricity prices, power tariffs in Guangxi and Guizhou stayed high with no expectation of a decline, Yunnan entered the rainy season and power tariffs were lowered somewhat, and during the minor wind season in Inner Mongolia, some areas faced power rationing, with electricity prices raised slightly. Coke: amid successive increases, coke prices continued to rise.With multiple factors intertwined, SiMn’s overall production costs declined somewhat.

Supply side: operating rates in Inner Mongolia were relatively stable, but most producers said losses were severe and production pressure was high. Producers in Ningxia saw deeper losses, continued last month’s output curbs and production cuts, and operating rates were low; the south China market diverged—thanks to lower power tariffs during the rainy season, alloy plants in Yunnan saw a relatively notable decline in overall costs and increased operating rates, while other south China regions still ran at generally low operating rates, had fewer shipment opportunities, and trading was sluggish.Overall industry supply declined, enterprises’ finished product inventories stayed high, and heavy destocking pressure continued to weigh on SiMn spot cargo and futures prices in the short term.

Demand side: end-use consumption of alloys was sluggish, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally weak, and steel mills and traders were cautious about restocking, making it difficult to provide an effective boost to the SiMn market in the short term. Steel mill tenders entered the market one after another; HBIS Group set its August 2026 SiMn price at 5,880 yuan/mt, up only 80 yuan/mtu from the first-round inquiry price of 5,800 yuan/mt, and versus the July price of 5,950 yuan/mt, it pushed for lower prices. SiMn procurement volume was 16,600 mt. This round of steel tender pricing provided limited support to the market,and market selling sentiment remained cautious.

Overall, current demand struggled to provide an effective boost to prices, producers generally remained in loss-making territory, and production pressure was high. Under a loose supply-demand landscape, SiMn was expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, and the market was still dominated by wait-and-see sentiment.