[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief Commentary] 20260828

[SMM Coking Coal & Coke Daily Brief Commentary]

Coking coal market:

Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was quoted at 2,400 yuan/mt.

Coking coal, coking coal: In major producing areas, safety inspection controls constrained operations, mine production resumptions progressed slowly, with work resuming but volumes not recovering. The pattern of structural tightness in high-quality coking coal continued. In addition, the second round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, boosting market confidence. In the short term, the coking coal market may hold up well.

Coke market:

The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (CDQ) was 2,090 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, as coking coal prices continued to rise, coke production costs kept increasing. Most independent coke producers remained mired in losses and proactively stepped up production restrictions and maintenance, leading to a contraction in coke supply. As downstream purchasing enthusiasm rebounded, coke inventories at coke producers were drawn down at a faster pace; supply in some regions was relatively tight, and sentiment to hold back from selling gradually strengthened. Demand side, maintenance cycles at most steel mills ended earlier, blast furnaces resumed production one after another, and the rebound in hot metal production drove rigid demand for coke up MoM. Some steel mills had low coke inventory and engaged in restocking at higher prices. However, with finished steel profitability currently weak and limited recovery in steel mill profits, steel mills were relatively cautious about accepting further coke price increases, and the game between coke and steel intensified. Overall, the coke market is more likely to hold up well in the short term. Driven by both cost support and improving downstream demand, coke has the conditions to initiate a third round of price increases. Going forward, focus on steel mills’ acceptance and changes in end-user demand for finished steel. [SMM Steel]