[SMM Türkiye Weekly Review] Longs Drive "Price-Volume Double Play"; Low Stocks and Cost Floor Anchor Strong Posture
Türkiye was undoubtedly the strongest performing market globally this week, as the "cost-push" logic fundamentally transformed into a "price-volume double play." On the long steel front, domestic rebar ex-factory prices surged by approximately 13USD/tonne over two weeks to 592 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT). Spot trading was exceptionally hot—within an hour of Kardemir posting its new offer of 595 USD/tonne EXW, approximately 35,000 tonnes of rebar were snapped up, while 120,000 tonnes of billet (at 535 USD/tonne EXW) sold out in minutes. Offers from major Marmara mills pushed higher to 610–615 USD/tonne EXW, while Izmir and Iskenderun stabilized at 587–590 USD/tonne EXW. With imported scrap holding steady at 375 USD/tonne CFR, spot margins for major mills expanded noticeably; however, buyers have begun showing resistance to further price hikes, refraining from aggressive restocking. The export market fired synchronously: rebar export quotes held firm at 590–595 USD/tonne FOB, wire rod strengthened to 600–605 USD/tonne FOB, and flat steel followed suit, with HRC export offers moving up to 580 USD/tonne FOB. H1 customs data confirmed a structural redrawing of Türkiye's export map: rebar exports to the EU plummeted by 28.4%, but volumes to MENA and Latin America surged; HRC's EU market share fell off a cliff in June, dropping from nearly 80% to 54.7%. Looking ahead to next week, the market is expected to maintain its strong posture, anchored by critically low inventories and a solid cost floor, though further upside depends on whether scrap prices can follow suit.