Fed Rate Decision Uncertainty Rises: Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut and PCE Data in Focus

Published: Aug 25, 2026 18:13

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US Fed rate suspense escalates again — Warsh's Jackson Hole debut on 8/28 + PCE finale on 8/26. CME showed a 59.9% probability of maintaining rates in September and a 40.1% probability of a 25bp hike. Warsh will make his first appearance at Jackson Hole at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on 8/28 (dubbed the "Warsh debut" by the market). Since taking office, Warsh has adopted a "quieter Fed" strategy (removing forward guidance, not disclosing the dot plot, and shortening the statement), and Goldman Sachs warned that communication ambiguity would exacerbate market fluctuations. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY (cooling for two consecutive months), while core PCE remained elevated (3.7% YoY in June), with inflation having stayed above the 2% target for five years.

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