SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on August 21

On August 13, 2026, the Ministry of Heavy Industries of India officially launched the technical bid evaluation for the "Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Manufacturing Promotion Plan" (REPM), with 20 bids vying for up to five licenses. On the surface, it appears to be a fierce "20-for-5" competition, but when examining the industry's fundamentals, the real protagonist of this story is not the 72.8 billion rupees (about $765 million) in subsidies, but the "three clocks" running simultaneously in India—the policy clock is already pointing to mass production in 2028, the commercialization clock of state-owned enterprise IREL points to 2029–2030, and the certification clock of downstream clients is measured in "years." The desynchronization of these three clocks is the most intuitive footnote to the fact that it is still too early for India's rare earth industry chain to develop.

According to China Customs data, China's rare earth permanent magnet (REPM) exports reached 5,375 tons​ in July 2026, down 4% MoM​ and 3.6% YoY. Total exports for January-July amounted to 36,880 tons, with a monthly average of 5,268 tons, aligning with SMM's earlier projections. SMM maintains its full-year 2026 REPM export forecast at approximately 61,600 tons, representing a YoY increase of about 7%.