Alumina in China drifts lower, outside China continues to strengthen, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM August 20 News:

Price Review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,681.62 yuan/mt, down 0.46 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, the price was reported at 2,650-2,720 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Henan, 2,690-2,750 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Shanxi, 2,680-2,740 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Guangxi, 2,580-2,640 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt WoW; and in Guizhou, 2,720-2,790 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW.

Markets Outside China: As of August 13, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $360/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $32/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.74. This price was equivalent to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at mainstream Chinese ports, which was 384.55 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. Seven spot alumina transactions were concluded outside China this week, with details as follows:

(1) On August 20, 2026, an alumina transaction was concluded outside China at $363/mt FOB East Australia for 30,000 mt, or $364/mt FOB East Australia for 50,000 mt, seller's option, with October shipment. (2) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment.

(3) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $362.5/mt FOB West Australia, with September shipment.

(4) On August 14, 2026, 63,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $409/mt CIF Rotterdam.

(5) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $400/mt FOB Jamaica, with September shipment.

(6) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $360/mt FOB West Australia or $358/mt FOB East Australia, with October shipment.

(7) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment.

Chinese Market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina was 118.42 million mt/year, with total operating capacity at 88.01 million mt/year. The national alumina weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 74.33%. Specifically, the weekly operating rate for alumina in Shandong remained flat WoW at 89.14%; in Shanxi, flat at 64.9%; in Henan, flat at 56.53%; in Guangxi, flat at 78.05%; and in Guizhou, flat at 83.05%.

Spot market side, two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 5,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,960 yuan/mt each. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,985 yuan/mt each.

Spot alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the oversupply situation continuing to weigh on China prices. Markets outside China showed a different trend, with alumina prices rising steadily, mainly due to two reasons: first, transportation issues in the Middle East increased demand for bagged alumina, leading to a premium and sustained rise in prices outside China; second, bauxite supply in Indonesia was generally tight, limiting local alumina production and pushing spot prices outside China higher. Domestically, operating capacity for alumina remained stable this week, with weekly production at 1.688 million mt. Inventory performance showed divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters decreased by 9,000 mt to 3.399 million mt, with current consumption primarily from in-factory inventory and long-term contract procurement pace maintained, overall changes relatively small; finished product inventories at alumina refineries decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with enterprises maintaining normal long-term contract shipments and limited fluctuations; port inventories decreased by 35,000 mt to 1.016 million mt, mainly due to a decline in pickup volume; warrant inventories increased by 15,000 mt to 288,000 mt, and in-transit inventories edged up by 2,000 mt to 1.325 million mt. Overall, total alumina inventories in China decreased by 30,000 mt to 7.245 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will resume production after maintenance ends, with capacity expected to recover, and overall supply is expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. On imports and exports, July net imports were 63,000 mt, and net imports are expected to decrease going forward, with port inventories likely to decline during the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[Data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]