High Inventory Suppresses Downstream Acceptance, Upstream Offers for Imported Bauxite Pull Back Slightly [SMM Weekly Review]

SMM August 20 News:

Domestic Bauxite:

Domestic Ore Supply Disruptions Continue, Mainstream Prices Remain Stable

Affected by the Shanxi coking coal incident, mining at major domestic bauxite production areas such as Shanxi and Henan has experienced some disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at a relatively high level, and alumina refineries have moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mostly passively accepting current ore prices for now. As of today, transaction prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi are around 530-550 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT; in Henan, prices for similar specifications are around 500-540 yuan/mt EXW; in Guiyang, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content are 490-540 yuan/mt EXW price including VAT; in Guangxi, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content are 320-335 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT.

Imported Bauxite:

Bauxite Price Hikes Fell Short of Early-Month Expectations, Upstream Import Ore Quotes Slightly Down

Data as of August 14 showed that total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 4.6891 million mt, up 12,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically stable. Due to renewed tensions in the US-Iran situation, oil prices rebounded again, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China followed with an upward trend. Market quotes rose to around 37-38 $/dmt, and mine costs continued to increase to varying degrees. Combined with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines tightened control over bauxite shipments. For Australia, as of August 14, weekly port departures from major Australian ports totaled 1.1008 million mt, up 174,000 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically flat. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port shipments. As of August 14, China's bauxite port arrivals totaled 4.8239 million mt, down 402,800 mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of oil price and ocean freight rate fluctuations on future arrival pace and landed costs.

Price-wise, Guinea's August long-term contract quotes for bauxite were in the range of 73-74 $/mt, but downstream price acceptance was relatively limited. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at China's alumina refineries remain at a high level. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories around 96 days, putting some upward pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounded, mine costs increased, and the traditional rainy season along with adverse weather caused shipment reductions. As a result, upstream and trader quotations did not meet early-month expectations, slightly declining to a high price range of $72-73/mt. Under the dual impact of persistently high inventory and shrinking profits, China's alumina refineries maintained their intended transaction prices in the $70-71/mt range. The divergence between upstream and downstream in the bauxite market remained significant, with transaction activity slowing down, and the stalemate continuing since last week. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quotation for Guinean bauxite was $36-44/mt, flat WoW; the CIF price was $70-73/mt, down $0.5/mt WoW; and the SMM imported bauxite index price stood at $71.99/mt, up $0.27/mt WoW. Moving forward, bauxite prices will still depend on mine costs, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and the government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor the bauxite market trends and transaction conditions.

Overall, domestic ore prices remained at current levels. Meanwhile, China's alumina refineries' inventories remained high (about 96 days), and the price negotiation between buyers and sellers persisted. The uncertainty of Guinea's quota policy, shipment decreases, and the traditional rainy season also brought certain upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of costs and policies leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to remain in a high-level stalemate. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.