In July, China's refined zinc turned into net exports and is expected to continue in August [SMM analysis].

SMM August 20 News:

According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in July 2026 were 5,100 mt, down 300 mt or 6.07% MoM and down 71.35% YoY. From January to July, cumulative refined zinc imports were 64,700 mt, down 69.16% YoY. Refined zinc exports in July were 9,200 mt, up 293.76% MoM and up 2,174.28% YoY. From January to July, cumulative refined zinc exports were 30,000 mt, up 134.57% YoY. That is, net exports of refined zinc in July were 4,100 mt, and from January to July, cumulative net imports were 34,700 mt.

From a country-specific perspective, the top three refined zinc importing countries in July were Kazakhstan (4,500 mt, 87.26%), Australia (300 mt, 5.79%), and South Korea (200 mt, 4.1%); the top three exporting countries were Thailand (2,500 mt, 26.98%), Japan (2,400 mt, 25.71%), and Vietnam (1,300 mt, 14.35%). Overall, as the SHFE/LME price ratio declined in July, export opportunities for refined zinc emerged. China became a net exporter of refined zinc, with total imports/exports broadly in line with expectations. By trade mode, Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas for Kazakh zinc contributed the majority of import volumes; meanwhile, 3,900 mt of zinc ingots also flowed out under this trade mode.

Since August, with China’s inventory remaining at a high level of around 270,000 mt, the LME Cash-3M backwardation structure has widened, LME inventory has fallen below 90,000 mt, LME outperforms SHFE continues, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio has declined again, the window for exporting refined zinc to Southeast Asia and shipping to delivery warehouse has opened, and domestic suppliers’ export enthusiasm has increased. It is expected that exports in August will continue to increase to 15,000-20,000 mt. On the import side, as the window remains closed, imports of refined zinc are expected to mainly come from bonded zone flows, remaining at a low level overall.

Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are derived from public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models by SMM processing, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.