Aluminum Alloy Futures Rebound Under Pressure, Cost Supports Spot Aluminum Stability [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

[SMM Flash] The coltan-rich Rubaya mining area in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo remains central to the region’s conflict and the global race for critical minerals. Reuters reporting from the area found that M23 controls the mines and has established an organised system covering mining, transportation and taxation. Rubaya is reported to produce a significant share of global coltan, from which tantalum is extracted for electronics, aerospace and medical applications. The reporting also highlighted harsh artisanal mining conditions, including the involvement of children, limited safety equipment and intense physical labour, while M23 reportedly collects taxes on production and controls who can trade the ore. The mineral trade is increasingly intertwined with diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. A US-backed peace process between the DRC and Rwanda and Qatar-mediated talks between the DRC and M23 are seeking to establish a lasting settlement, with access to the DRC’s vast mineral resources also attracting Western investment interest. However, analysts cited by Reuters stressed that peace agreements alone may not be sufficient without stronger mineral traceability to prevent smuggling and conflict financing. The DRC is also seeking to diversify investment and reduce its dependence on China, which remains deeply involved in the country’s copper and cobalt supply chains.

South Africa's chromium sector remains split between two very different trajectories. Chrome ore exports stayed structurally strong in June at 2.404 million tonnes, up nearly 39% year-on-year, with China absorbing more than two-thirds of that volume, and PGM producers including Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam Platinum, Eastplats and Southern Palladium's Bengwenyama project all adding further ore supply through chromite by-product growth. Ferrochrome, by contrast, is recovering only slowly despite real intervention — NERSA's 62c/kWh tariff, the Lion Smelter's phased restart, and the withdrawal of Section 189 retrenchments. Merafe's full H1 results, released 11 August, showed production still down 75% year-on-year, with sales held up mainly by drawing down existing inventory and by firmer prices, not by smelters running at anything close to pre-crisis capacity. That gap is being reinforced from multiple directions at once. The 13 August tailings dam failure at Samancor's Dikwena Chrome mine served as a reminder that even the ore-export side of the business, for all its trade-data strength, is not without operational risk. Further afield, the international market's expectations are evolving too: Kazakhstan's Kazchrome secured a registered Environmental Product Declaration for its ferrochrome in March, following Finland's Outokumpu, which set the industry precedent in 2023, pointing to a growing role for verified carbon credentials in how ferrochrome buyers assess supply options. With tariff relief and smelter restarts having done enough to arrest ferrochrome's decline but not yet enough to restore meaningful production growth, South Africa's chrome industry enters the second half of 2026 still leaning on ore exports and drawn-down inventory to carry its earnings, even as the broader market it sells into continues to evolve.

A dam wall failure at compartment 1B of Samancor Chrome's Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits, North West province, released the bulk of its stored waste material on 13 August 2026, sending sludge toward the neighboring Eland Mine, operated by Northam Platinum. The spill blocked an access road to Eland's Maroelabult shaft, damaged a railway line and Eskom power infrastructure — triggering power interruptions in Brits and surrounding areas — and polluted a nearby watercourse. A railway embankment and earthen berms prevented the material from reaching the adjacent R566 public road. No injuries or fatalities have been reported. Samancor Chrome's CEO acknowledged that while a third party operates the facility, the company accepts full responsibility for the incident, and clean-up and repair teams have since restored access to the affected routes and begun repairing damaged Eskom infrastructure. South Africa's Department of Water and Sanitation, alongside the Limpopo-Olifants Catchment Management Agency, has opened a formal investigation and collected water samples from the affected area to assess the extent of contamination. Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe visited the site on 17 August alongside Water and Sanitation Deputy Minister David Mahlobo for a high-level assessment of the damage. Preliminary analysis points to a combination of factors behind the failure, including light rainfall in the days before the collapse and possible structural vulnerability in the facility's design. According to one tailings expert, the affected dam was a newly engineered structure that only began operating in 2024, following the re-mining of an older facility on the same site between 2019 and 2022 — meaning the failure occurred roughly two years into the new facility's operating life. The findings of the ongoing government investigation are expected to determine the precise cause and any regulatory or remedial action required.