Futures Market
LME: Three-month tin on the LME closed at about $55,800/mt on August 18, down 0.40%, with an intraday high of $56,100 and a low of $55,500. After the mild CPI and PPI data were fully priced in during the Asian session on August 17, bulls rotated positions at high levels overnight, causing tin prices to give back some gains, though they remained in a high and firm range among London base metals. LME tin inventory fell another 20 mt on August 18, staying at the historically low level of 5,485 mt.
China (Aug 18 daytime session → Aug 19 01:02 night session): The most-traded SHFE tin 2609 contract settled at 424,760 yuan/mt in the daytime session, down 6,660 yuan or 1.54%; the most-traded contract for the full day settled at 424,800, down 1.53%. In the night session (as of 01:02 on Aug 19), the 2609 contract closed at 420,150 yuan/mt, down 5,140 yuan or 1.21%, opening at 425,560, high at 425,560, low at 418,200 — the night session saw another daily decline of 5,140 yuan, pushing the 420,000 integer level from “distant support” into an “immediate battleground.”
Aug 19 morning session opening reference: The 2609 contract is expected to open in the range of 418,200–421,000 yuan/mt (with the night session close of 420,150 as the pivot). The 420,000 level acts as strong support in the short term (above the night session low of 418,200), while 425,560 (the night session opening and daytime session high area) serves as the first resistance level. If the morning session can reclaim the 421,000 level, a second test of the 424,000–425,000 area (the average price zone of the previous daytime session) is possible; otherwise, it is likely to consolidate on a subdued note within the 418,200–422,000 range during the day.
Inventory:
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LME tin inventory was about 5,485 mt (as of August 14), then fell another 20 mt on August 18. Registered warrants stood at approximately 4,680 mt, cancelled warrants at about 805 mt, and the cancellation ratio at around 14.68% — the “squeeze undertone” from low inventory and high cancellations remained intact;
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SHFE tin inventory rose to 5,452 mt on August 14, up 324 mt in a single day (Shanghai 1,907 unchanged, Guangdong 3,487 +324, Jiangsu 58 unchanged). Total exchange tin inventory (LME+SHFE) was approximately 10,940 mt;
Macro: The probability of a September rate hike stands at a low 33.1%, and the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes tonight/tomorrow morning will be a new variable.
(1) With CPI and PPI remaining mild, the probability of a September rate hike has stabilized at around 33.1%. US July CPI rose 3.4% YoY (prior 3.5%), and core CPI rose 2.5% YoY (a more than four-year low, prior 2.6%). PPI for July was up 4.7% YoY (prior 5.5%) and unchanged MoM (vs. expectations of +0.2%). CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has fallen to 33.1% (down from 44.4% on August 7 a week ago), and the chance of at least one rate hike this year has dropped to 67.7% — “easing bets” were the core backdrop for tin prices shooting up on August 17, but the positive news has already been fully priced in.
(2) Today (8/19) at 14:00 ET, the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on 8/20). These are the minutes of the 7/29 meeting where the committee voted 9:3 to hold rates steady. Three regional Fed presidents (Hammack/Kashkari/Logan) advocated for a rate hike but were outvoted, revealing growing internal divisions. BMO’s Ian Lyngen judged that “the committee has vocal hawks, but the majority leans with Warsh in favoring a hold at least through September”; the minutes offer “a framework for understanding, not a forecasting tool,” but the detailed description of the “9:3 dissent” could influence market pricing for the 9/16 FOMC, serving as a key macro anchor for tonight’s night session and tomorrow’s early trading.
(3) Jackson Hole 2026 will take place from 8/27–29, with Warsh delivering the keynote speech on the morning of Friday, 8/28. This is Warsh’s first Jackson Hole appearance since becoming Chair on 5/22, and the topic is “Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy Implications.” Multiple analyses (Regards of Wall Street/WealthFargo/Taishin Securities) agree: Warsh already indicated in June that he would not disclose a dot plot, would shorten forward guidance, and preferred to “let the market guess”; recently he said Jackson Hole would focus on “long-term structural issues rather than near-term data”—he is expected not to deliver a clear interest rate signal this time, but the notion of “not boring” itself is questionable: the July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 and inflation remains at 3.4%, making the 20-minute speech the “closing argument” ahead of September. What truly matters for the 9/16 FOMC are still the 8/26 July PCE, the 8/28 Warsh speech, the 9/4 August nonfarm payrolls, and the 9/11 August CPI.
(4) Geopolitics and AI supply chain: The Strait of Hormuz situation remains volatile (Iran denied full reopening and US-Iran relations remain a variable for oil prices); Foxconn Industrial Internet’s H1 net profit surged 96%, AI server capex remains elevated, and tin’s “solder alpha” continues to provide medium- and long-term support.
Fundamentals: Yinman fully suspended and Wa State capped at 50%, hard supply constraints have not eased.
(1) Yinman Mining’s mining, processing, and tailings operations are fully shut down, with the duration of the suspension unresolved. Xingye Silver&Tin announced on 7/31: a 7/26 accident resulted in one fatality; underground mining was suspended on 7/28, and the processing and tailings systems followed on 7/30. As of the announcement date, both the mining system and the processing/tailings system are shut down, the cause of the accident and the death are under investigation, the duration of the suspension cannot be determined, and the impact on current and full-year results cannot yet be accurately estimated. This is a core tin-silver mine with a capacity of 1.65 million mt/year of mining and processing; a short shutdown of 1–2 months is estimated to affect approximately 1,000 mt of tin metal content (accounting for 3%–4% of China’s tin concentrates). If the investigation/rectification extends into Q4, the domestic ore supply deficit will widen further.
(2) Wa State "50% ceiling" unchanged: the annual production resumption cap is locked at 40%–50% of pre-ban ore output, full resumption postponed to 2027; February's water extraction fee allocation (5% levy on exports + original 30% in-kind tax = combined 35%) raised mining costs; April's explosion at the Bangkang explosives factory disrupted the explosives supply chain; monthly tin ore exports from Myanmar to China returned to above 6,000 mt in July.
Aug 18 Spot: Futures plunged 1.54% in the daytime session; suppliers quoted lower, and downstream users stayed on the sidelines amid falling prices.
Premiums: Yunnan Tin brand premiums were maintained at +900 to +1,500 yuan/mt; the underlying tightness in available supply from major producers did not break, but traders' price-holding efforts weakened markedly under high price suppression.
Transactions: "Strong fear of declines, cautious spot trading." After the daytime futures retreated from above 430,000 to 424,760, and the night session further dipped to 418,200, downstream and end-users showed more willingness to inquire and fix prices in the 418,000–422,000 range, with some solder plants and electronics companies completing small-volume deals in the morning; however, solder plants largely stayed away above 425,000, with weak chasing interest. The whole day reflected "rigid demand release after a retreat from highs, not the start of active restocking" – ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder remained in off-season wait-and-see mode; high-end solder demand for AI servers and advanced packaging showed resilience but was not enough to boost spot volumes in the short term.
[Data source statement: All data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
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