Futures
LME: LME 3-month tin closed overnight at $55,800/mt, down $225, down 0.40%, with an intraday high of 56,100 and a low of 55,500; after the PPI cooling tailwind was largely priced in during Monday’s (8/17) Asian session, overnight bulls rotated positions at elevated levels and tin prices gave back slightly, yet remained in a high and relatively strong range among London base metals.
China (8/17 daytime session → 8/18 08:50 open): SHFE tin 2609 closed the daytime session yesterday at 429,220 yuan/mt; at the 08:50 open on 8/18, 2609 was quoted at 428,000 yuan/mt, down 1,220, down 0.28%, opening at 428,000, with a low of 427,400, a high of 429,500, and an average of 428,260; trading volume was 22,966 lots and open interest was 42,083 lots—Tuesday opened slightly lower; 428,000 (the opening price) served as the short-term morning pivot, and bulls shifted to position rotation at elevated levels after the PPI tailwind was priced in.
Inventory:
- LME tin inventory was 5,485 mt on 8/14, down 50 mt on the day (multiple sources including Shengyishe/World Aluminum/Golden Ten were consistent), with registered warrants at 4,680 mt and cancelled warrants at 805 mt, with cancellations accounting for 14.68%—the “short squeeze backdrop” of low inventory plus high cancellations remains intact; the cancellation ratio pulled back slightly from 15.34% on 8/11, marginally easing squeeze urgency;
- SHFE tin inventory rose to 5,452 mt on 8/14, up 324 mt on the day (Shanghai 1,907 unchanged, Guangdong 3,487 +324, Jiangsu 58 unchanged), and exchange tin inventory (LME+SHFE) was about 10,940 mt.
Macro: after PPI cooled, the probability of a rate hike is about 32%; Jackson Hole (8/27–29) will see Walsh’s debut, but may not provide rate signals
(1) US July PPI broadly missed expectations, with inflation cooling further. July PPI YoY 4.7% (expected 4.9%, prior 5.5%), and MoM flat (expected +0.2%, prior revised from -0.3% to -0.1%); core PPI YoY 4.2% (in line with expectations), and MoM +0.2% (expected +0.3%). Energy prices MoM -3.1% (gasoline -5.7%) were the main drag.
(2) The probability of a rate hike held steady at about 32%. After the PPI release, traders cut September hike bets to about 32% (about 38%–40% before the PPI release); CME FedWatch: the probability of holding 3.5%–3.75% unchanged in September is about 68%. CPI and PPI staying mild in succession made “limited urgency for short-term policy adjustments” the prevailing view—but the PPI positive was largely priced in during Monday’s (8/17) Asian session; overnight bulls rotated positions at high levels, and a slight pullback at today’s open was normal digestion.
(3) Jackson Hole 2026 will be held on August 27–29, with the theme “Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy Implications.” This will be Wash’s first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office as Chair on May 22. However, multiple analyses (Regards of Wall Street/WealthFargo) noted: Wash stated in June that he would not disclose the dot plot and would shorten forward guidance, leaning toward “letting the market guess”; he also recently said Jackson Hole would focus on “long-term structural issues rather than near-term data”—he is expected not to release a clear rate signal this time, and “boredom” itself is somewhat supportive for risk assets. What will truly affect the September 16 FOMC remains three data releases: August PCE (8/29), August nonfarm payrolls (9/4), and August CPI (9/11).
(4) Geopolitics and the AI chain: the Strait of Hormuz situation repeatedly fluctuated (Iran denied a full reopening, and U.S.–Iran relations remained a variable for oil prices); Industrial Fulian’s H1 net profit rose 96%, AI server capex stayed elevated, and tin’s “solder alpha” medium and long-term support remained intact.
Fundamentals: Yinman’s full shutdown plus Wa State capped at 50%—the hard supply constraint did not ease
(1) Yinman Mining’s mining and processing plus tailings were fully halted, with the shutdown duration still uncertain. Xingye Silver&Tin announced on 7/31: the mining system, beneficiation system, and tailings system had all been suspended; the 350,000 mt surface ore buffer became ineffective; the 1.65 million mt/year core tin-silver mine, assuming a short stoppage of 1–2 months, was estimated to impact tin metal content by about 1,000 mt (3%–4% of China’s tin concentrates); if the investigation/rectification extends into Q4, the ore supply deficit in China will further widen.
(2) Wa State’s “50% cap” remained unchanged: the annual upper limit for resuming production was locked at 40%–50% of the pre-ban level, and a full resumption was pushed back to 2027; the February apportionment of pumping fees (exports +5% + the original 30% in-kind tax = 35% in total) lifted mining costs, and the April explosion at the Bangkang explosives plant disrupted the explosives supply chain; in July, Myanmar’s monthly tin ore exports to China returned to above 6,000 mt, still only 40%–50% of normal levels.
Spot market (8/17 review + 8/18 early-session estimate)
Turnover: “macro sentiment shifts, an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts.”Futures moved sideways within the 427,400–429,500 range, while downstream and end-users released more willingness than earlier to request quotes and fix prices within the 422,000–425,000 range; some solder plants and electronics enterprises completed small-lot transactions. However, above 428,000, solder plants basically did not place orders, with weak willingness to chase purchases. Overall, the day was characterized by “rigid demand being released after a narrow-range consolidation at high levels, rather than the start of proactive restocking”—mainstream consumer electronics and conventional solder remained in off-season wait-and-see mode; demand for AI server- and advanced packaging-related high-end solder showed resilience, but in the short term was not enough to boost spot cargo volumes.
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