Metals Rose Broadly; LME and SHFE Copper and SHFE Nickel Led the Gains; Platinum, Palladium, and SHFE Silver Lead the Gains; Lithium Carbonate Fell More Than 1% [SMM Midday Commentary]

SMM News, Aug 17:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.76%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.58%. SHFE lead rose 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 0.99%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel rose 1%.

In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was flat at 8,665 yuan/mt. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.94%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.77%, rebar fell 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.42%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.66%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.58%.

Overseas base metals: As of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.68%, and LME lead rose 0.42%. LME zinc rose 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.43%. LME nickel rose 0.62%.

Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 1.02%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.92%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.64%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.05%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping container freight contract rose 8.59% to 1,725.5 points.

As of 11:42 on Aug 17, midday moves in select futures:

Spot and Fundamentals

Silver:Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity-risk disruptions limited gains, with silver prices consolidating at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and transactions tended toward small declines…

Macro Front

China:

PBOC: Based on the demand of primary dealers for open market operations, the volume of 7-day reverse repo operations on Aug 17, 2026 was zero. Meanwhile, 565.5 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations was conducted. (Jinshi Data APP)

[China Made Major Progress in Key Technologies for Rare Earth Detection]It was learned today that recently, China made major progress in key technologies for rare earth detection. For a long time, accurately determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths has faced the challenge of matrix interference, which has severely constrained precise control over the quality of rare earth products. To break through this technical bottleneck, a dedicated technical R&D effort was carried out relying on the Key Laboratory of the State Administration for Market Regulation (Rare Earth Product Detection and Traceability) established at Jiangxi University of Science and Technology. Through the unremitting efforts of the research team, breakthroughs were achieved in detection technology, and overall technical capabilities reached a new level. The research team successfully developed multiple key technologies for rare earth detection, among which the inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry method for directly determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths was particularly outstanding. This technology successfully overcame bottlenecks of traditional detection methods, such as the need to separate the matrix in advance and high detection limits. It offers significant advantages including high sensitivity, high accuracy, and rapid detection, enabling direct and precise determination of trace rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths and providing solid and strong technical support for quality control of rare earth products. (CCTV News)

US dollar:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.55. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 66.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 33.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 53.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.6%.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said recent CPI data were encouraging, but inflation in May and June had still been relatively high; only if the momentum from June continued over the next three to four months could one be confident that prices were steadily returning to the 2% target. He supported keeping rates unchanged in July, saying inflation remained the biggest concern and that the economy and employment were “basically stable.” He warned that continued declines in retail sales would be concerning, as consumption is a key pillar of the US economy. In addition, he expressed concern about the recent pullback in productivity growth, saying that if AI-driven growth could not be sustained, the narrative around AI and monetary policy would need to be revisited. As for whether to reduce the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he had no strong view and was willing to wait for the working group’s recommendations. (Jin10 Data APP)

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted in global macro research released on August 16 that a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting “had become very unlikely,” unless the August data released in early September showed a dramatic shift—which was not his base case. This judgment was not based on a single data point, but on three main threads turning simultaneously: cooling consumption, employment trends nearing stagnation, and improving inflation. (Wallstreetcn)

On the data front:

Today will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial value added above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and the US August NAHB Housing Market Index. Key Items to Watch:: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration released data on total social electricity consumption around the 15th of each month.

Crude oil:

As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.22% and Brent up 0.46%. Oil prices edged up on Monday as traders looked for the next catalyst to drive direction. Israel launched a new round of attacks on Lebanon, and the US may impose new sanctions on Iran, heightening geopolitical uncertainty. (Jinshi Data APP)

Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined over the past weekend as tankers came under attack and US-Iran talks also stalled. Five bulk commodity cargo ships passed through the strait on Saturday, while none passed on Sunday, a sharp drop from 31 over the previous weekend. (Jinshi Data APP)

Spot Market Overview:

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