【SMM Analysis】TOPCon Cell Prices Surge: Sentiment, Cost, and Policy Factors Drive Market Rally

After nearly two months of continuous declines, TOPCon cell prices have recently seen a strong rebound. Prices of various sizes have risen sharply within just one week, drawing significant attention from companies across the PV industry chain. According to SMM data, as of August 12, the actual transaction prices of monocrystalline TOPCon cells in 183mm, 210R and 210mm sizes were RMB 0.29/W, RMB 0.285/W and RMB 0.29/W, respectively, up about 15% from the beginning of August.

Looking back at this round of price movements, the trend has shown a pattern of “decline first, followed by a rise.” In July, the cell market remained under pressure. The price of 210R cells fell from RMB 0.275/W at the beginning of the month to RMB 0.2575/W at the end of the month, reaching a recent low. After entering August, market sentiment reversed rapidly. From August 5 to August 12, prices of 183mm and 210R cells rose from RMB 0.2725/W and RMB 0.2605/W, respectively, to RMB 0.29/W, representing a weekly increase of about 12%. Some manufacturers have already quoted 210R cells at as high as RMB 0.31/W this afternoon.

Sentiment: Polysilicon Cost Expectations Continue to Build, Strengthening Bullish Sentiment in the Cell Market

Following the polysilicon cost meeting at the end of July, market expectations for higher polysilicon prices increased significantly, and upstream price-supporting sentiment quickly transmitted downstream along the industry chain. As polysilicon producers raised quotations and more suppliers suspended offers or held back sales, cell manufacturers further strengthened their expectations of rising raw material costs, leading them to quickly raise their quotations.

As the price increases gradually gained support from actual transactions, bullish sentiment among cell manufacturers continued to strengthen, forming a positive feedback loop of “manufacturers raising prices first—transactions gradually following—market expectations of further price increases strengthening.”

Cost: Rising Silver Paste Costs Provide Solid Support for Cell Prices

Silver paste, as a core raw material for solar cells, has a direct impact on cell production costs through its price fluctuations. The price of TOPCon solar cell busbar silver paste rose from a low of RMB 11,672/kg on July 17 to RMB 13,730/kg on August 12, representing a cumulative increase of about 17.6%. The rise in silver paste prices has directly pushed up the production cost floor of solar cells, becoming the most solid cost support for this round of price increases.

Policy: India’s ALMM Extension Combined with U.S. Section 232 Measures Drives Concentrated Export Demand

On the policy side, the combined effect of two major overseas policies has provided strong demand-side momentum for this round of price increases.

In India, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) issued a notice on July 21 extending the ALMM List-II exemption window for net-metering and open-access renewable energy projects to December 31, 2026. This means that relevant projects commissioned before the end of the year may continue to be exempt from the ALMM-II cell compliance requirements. Non-ALMM-compliant cells have therefore gained a temporary shipment window in the Indian market, directly driving the release of Chinese cell export demand to India, with particularly noticeable order growth for the mainstream 183mm and 210R sizes.

In the United States, on August 6, U.S. President Trump signed a proclamation announcing import adjustment measures following the “Section 232 investigation” into polysilicon and its derivatives. Starting from December 4, 2026, a minimum import price mechanism will be implemented for polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules, with the minimum import price for cells set at USD 0.22/W, while an additional 15% ad valorem tariff will be imposed on related derivative products.

Although the policy will not officially take effect until December, market expectations have already begun to build in advance. During the transition period before December 4, overseas buyers have accelerated their procurement to lock in lower-priced supply, bringing demand forward.

Market Outlook: The Sustainability of the Price Increase Still Depends on Downstream Demand Acceptance

Overall, TOPCon cell prices still have some upward support in the short term, but whether the current rally can continue will mainly depend on the downstream market’s actual acceptance of higher prices.

First, upstream cost support remains. Expectations of price increases for polysilicon and wafers have not yet faded, while silver paste prices remain at high levels, continuing to provide cost-side support for solar cells.

Second, overseas demand still has phased incremental potential. India’s ALMM exemption window and procurement demand ahead of the implementation of U.S. policies may continue to bring phased order releases.

Third, the module segment’s ability to absorb higher prices remains the key variable. At present, the increase in cell prices has been significantly faster than that of modules. If downstream acceptance of higher prices is insufficient, the room for further rapid increases in cell prices will also be constrained.

TOPCon cell prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, but whether they can further stabilize at high levels will still depend on the realization of high-priced transactions, acceptance from the module segment, and the sustainability of overseas orders.