[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (August 7-August 13), platinum and palladium prices retreated after a rapid rise and consolidated at highs, closing the week slightly lower.
At the beginning of the week, US July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of 80,000, the worst performance this year. Expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled substantially, and platinum and palladium extended the previous week's firm trend.
Mid-week, US-Iran negotiations hit renewed setbacks and geopolitical maneuvering intensified; platinum and palladium shot up intraday before pulling back sharply. Platinum hit a high of 441.85 yuan/g, a new high for this rebound, but closed down 0.90% at 430.55 yuan/g, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure.
At the end of the week, US July CPI was released, up 3.4% YoY (prior 3.5%) and up 0.1% MoM, with core CPI up 2.5% YoY (prior 2.6%), all in line with expectations. Inflation pulled back mildly but did not decline more than expected. The probability of a September US Fed rate hike edged down to 45% from 47%, and the market interpreted the data as neutral. Combined with the large cumulative rebound and the need for technical overbought repair, both platinum and palladium fell on August 13.
The most-traded platinum contract on the GFEX hit a weekly high of 441.85 yuan/g and a low of 427.10 yuan/g, and closed at 430.70 yuan/g on August 13, with platinum down about 0.65% WoW; the most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 336.00 yuan/g and a low of 320.20 yuan/g, and closed at 320.95 yuan/g on August 13, with palladium down about 1.47% WoW.
In the spot market, with platinum and palladium futures generally fluctuating at recent highs, spot selling pressure was heavy. In addition, low-priced cargoes emerged and the platinum import window opened, so mainstream platinum quotations were at discounts of about 5-3 yuan/g against the most-traded contract, with discounts widening WoW. Mainstream palladium quotations were at discounts of about 3.5-1.5 yuan/g against the most-traded contract. As futures consolidated at highs, downstream consumption remained weak, and end-user enterprises mainly restocked as needed. Overall, quotation competition in the platinum and palladium spot market intensified during the week, while consumption stayed weak.
Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are now in a high-level consolidation range after an oversold rebound. Short-term upward momentum has weakened, and bullish and bearish factors are interwoven. On the bullish side, US July nonfarm payrolls and CPI both pointed to cooling in the economy and a mild inflation pullback. Expectations for US Fed rate hikes have continued to converge at the margin, and falling real interest rates support precious metals valuations. Expectations for trade protection through Section 232 tariffs provide medium-term bottom support. However, downside constraints remain clear. First, this week's retreat after the rapid rise showed that part of the earlier oversold rebound momentum has been released. Technical resistance above 440 yuan/g for platinum and 335 yuan/g for palladium is relatively strong, and profit-taking selling pressure is heavy. Second, the probability of a US Fed rate hike in September remains close to 50%; the Fed's hawkish tone has not fundamentally reversed, and interest rate constraints persist. Third, the Strait of Hormuz is actually still closed, so the risk of renewed geopolitical volatility remains. The subsequent price direction will still depend on substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations, signals from the Fed's August meeting, and further guidance from macro data.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories showed synchronized mild destocking this week. Platinum inventories extended their prior downtrend, with total inventory down to about 393,500 oz, down about 5,000 oz WoW. The destocking trend continued. The core reason is that, against a backdrop of high-level price consolidation, industrial buying was cautious but there was still bargain-hunting restocking demand at lower prices. In addition, after the earlier price rebound, some warrants were canceled and flowed out, and inventories continued to be absorbed. Palladium inventories also edged lower, with total inventory at about 251,100 oz. Although down slightly WoW, they remained near a one-year high. US warehouse buffer stocks are ample, and the loose supply picture has not fundamentally changed.
On the import side, China's platinum and palladium imports remained high, and imports have grown rapidly since the beginning of 2026. Domestic platinum and palladium supply is currently relatively ample, creating some downward pressure on domestic prices.
In ETFs, platinum and palladium ETF holdings continued to diverge. Platinum ETFs saw sporadic small inflows during the price rebound, but no sustained large-scale accumulation has appeared, and institutional allocation appetite remains cautious. Palladium ETFs extended their medium- and long-term net outflow trend. The exodus of long-term funds has not fundamentally reversed, providing weaker support for palladium prices than for platinum.
On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained low. One-month platinum lease rates were below 2%, and one-month palladium lease rates hovered around 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak borrowing demand; the overall loose supply picture remained unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices first shot up and then pulled back slightly from highs, driven by rising upstream raw material costs, but spot trading was sluggish overall. Downstream demand from automotive catalysts, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals was weak. Enterprises mostly restocked as needed and lacked sustained buying. Processing fees declined as transactions weakened.
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices showed a pattern of "first surging and then pulling back slightly from highs." From Monday to Wednesday, prices moved sideways in the 178.5-179.5 yuan/g range, and on Thursday they continued to fall to 176.5 yuan/g, a decline of about 1.9%. Palladium chloride showed a slightly stronger trend than chloroplatinic acid. It continued to edge up at the start of the week, reaching a weekly high of 207.5 yuan/g on August 11, but then quickly fell back to 202.5 yuan/g over the following two days.
The increase in compound prices this round was mainly driven by upstream raw materials, with raw material costs pulling up compound prices. Although prices were at highs, sluggish spot market trading was the key feature throughout. Downstream industrial demand from automotive catalysts, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals was weak. End-user enterprises mainly restocked as needed, lacking sustained buying support, so compound prices gradually fell after the initial spike due to a lack of demand support. Downstream demand was weak, and higher raw material costs squeezed compound producers' overall profit margins. It is understood that compound producers' processing fees showed an overall downward trend to ease the difficult trading environment.
![Platinum in the Doldrums, Spot Platinum Transaction Discounts Narrow, Consumption Recovers Slightly [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VphiQ20251217171736.jpg)
