Palladium Outperforms 2025 Forecasts as Supply Risks and Hybrid Demand Support Prices

[SMM Flash] The US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) is providing $58 million in financing for three critical-mineral projects, including $25 million for Global Advanced Metals to expand tantalum and niobium processing in Pennsylvania, as Washington moves to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains. The financing was announced on August 7 alongside a critical-minerals meeting hosted by US President Donald Trump. Global Advanced Metals operates a major tantalum and niobium processing facility in Boyertown, Pennsylvania, producing tantalum capacitor powders as well as tantalum, niobium and alloy products. The company sources the metals from Australia before processing them in the US. The investment is strategically significant because the US currently does not mine tantalum or niobium domestically, leaving downstream industries reliant on imports. This move could strengthen demand for reliable and traceable columbite-tantalite and other Ta-Nb feedstock, while encouraging greater diversification away from concentrated supply chains. The move also reflects growing US efforts to secure critical-mineral supply chains through domestic processing and allied sources.

[SMM Flash] Platinum significantly outperformed analyst expectations in 2025, according to the latest LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey. The metal averaged USD 1,274.73/oz, exceeding the highest analyst average forecast of USD 1,100/oz by USD 174.73/oz. Platinum started 2025 at USD 921/oz before surging to USD 2,226/oz, ending the year 142% above its starting level. The 2025 actual price range of USD 920–2,226/oz was also substantially wider than the ranges anticipated by analysts. The sharp rally highlights how supply constraints and stronger-than-expected investment demand reshaped the platinum market. For 2026, individual analyst average-price forecasts range from around USD 1,700/oz to USD 2,870/oz, reflecting a considerably more bullish outlook. Key supporting factors include constrained mine supply, years of underinvestment, low above-ground inventories, investment demand and continued platinum substitution in autocatalysts. Growing hybrid vehicle demand and increased investor participation are also expected to support prices.