August 11, 2026 Tin Lunch Review
The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) opened at 426,050 yuan/mt in early trading, consolidated in the 428,000—429,000 yuan/mt range, and then, near the morning session close, bulls suddenly pushed prices up, hitting a high of 432,380 yuan/mt and closing the morning at 431,650 yuan/mt, up 1.44% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Intraday funds saw a slight inflow, with open interest increasing by 2,206 lots to 49,765 lots. On the LME, trends were coordinated and stronger, with three-month LME tin currently at $56,200/mt, up 1.14%.
Macro and news:
(1) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee publicly reiterated that combating inflation remains the top priority, noting that excessively rapid price increases are the biggest concern for the current economy and describing the labour market as "stable, but not good." Tonight, the US will release July CPI data (markets expect headline CPI YoY to decline from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI to pull back from 2.6% to 2.5%); ahead of the data, market divergence over the September policy path remains pronounced. Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.01% to 99.83, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.693%, and the 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.226%.
(2) It was reported that US forces opened fire on a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman that was attempting to break through the blockade of Iran; subsequently, Iran's Supreme National Security Council reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened as long as the US does not accept Iran's conditions, leaving geopolitical risk concerns far from fully dissipated.
In the spot market, trading sentiment turned thin again. During the previous two days, while futures prices pulled back, downstream and end-user enterprises released small amounts of purchasing demand, with moderate trading; however, as the futures center recovered today, actual deals this morning were relatively limited.
Overall, bulls and bears are currently betting on macro expectations ahead of tonight's US July CPI release. Before key inflation data and the subsequent Fed path become clear, market funds will struggle to form a one-sided consensus. Tin prices are expected to consolidate at highs in the short term.
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