Futures
LME: The LME three-month tin contract closed at $55,325/mt on the electronic session on Monday, August 10, up 1.27% (rebounding from the 54,900 range at last Friday's close). The intraday high was 55,600 and the low was 54,800. The NFP miss of -23,000 sparked an "easing trade" that fully materialized during Monday's Asian and European sessions, with tin leading the gains among base metals.
China (August 8 night session → August 11 early session): SHFE tin 2609 settled at 434,910 yuan/mt (–0.10%) in Friday's daytime session, and at 437,530 yuan/mt in the night session (reference for August 11 opening), up 0.75%. It opened at 436,200, reached a high of 438,100 and a low of 435,800. The 2609 contract is expected to open at 437,000–439,500 yuan/mt, with 437,000 becoming the new short-term pivot and the 440,000 round-number level shifting from a "long-term target" back into the "testable range this week".
Inventory:
• LME tin inventory held at an extremely low 5,690 mt (5,690 mt as of August 7, –105 mt). Cancelled warrants stood at 860 mt, a cancellation ratio of 15.11%—approaching but not yet breaching the 20% squeeze warning line. Deliverable supply outside China continues to tighten.
• SHFE tin weekly inventory fell to 5,286 mt, down 170 mt WoW. Total exchange tin inventory (LME+SHFE) dropped below 11,000 mt.
Macro: The NFP miss of -23,000 continues to reverberate. The probability of a September rate hike remains low at 22%, and the easing trade has become the main theme.
(1) The shock from July's NFP miss has yet to fade. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 MoM, well below the expected +80,000 to +100,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1% (due to labor supply contraction rather than employment expansion; the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%). Revisions for May and June totaled –103,000, and the 12-month average stands at just +34,000—hiring momentum continues to wane.
(2) CME FedWatch: The probability of a 25bp rate hike in September remains around 22%, with a 78% chance of no change. After the NFP report, the US dollar index fell below 99, the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back, and COMEX gold rose about 2.3% WoW. "Easing trade resumes" was the core driver behind the collective surge in nonferrous metals, with tin boasting the greatest price elasticity thanks to low inventory.
(3) However, the hawks have not fully retreated, and data still need to confirm. Kashkari's comment that "three rate hikes this year are not impossible" and Cook's that "ready to hike if inflation does not cool" still echo. The July CPI release on August 12 (Wednesday) is the next key period—if CPI MoM pulls back and core CPI cools, the 22% probability may fall further, pushing tin toward 445,000; if CPI resilience exceeds expectations, rate hike odds could swing back, increasing the risk of a top above 440,000.
(4) Geopolitical premium continues to retreat: U.S.-Iran Hormuz negotiations show positive signals, WTI pulls back to around $75/bbl, and energy inflation re-acceleration risk eases in the short term, giving tin's "low inventory + tight ore" theme room for an upward move.
Fundamentals: Yinman's full shutdown unresolved + Wa State's 50% cap, supply elasticity is welded shut.
(1) Yinman Mining's mining, beneficiation, and tailings are all shut down, with the shutdown duration uncertain. Xingye Silver&Tin's July 30 announcement: Mining systems and beneficiation tailings systems have all been shut down, and the surface 350,000 mt ore buffer has become ineffective; the 1.65 million mt/year core tin-silver mine for mining and beneficiation, based on a 1-2 month short shutdown, is estimated to impact about 1,000 mt of tin metal content (accounting for about 3%–4% of China's tin concentrate supply, representing a regional marginal tightening).
(2) As the rainy season in Wa State draws to an end, the "50% cap" remains: the annual production resumption ceiling is locked at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, and full resumption is postponed to 2027; the February water extraction fee apportionment (5% increase on exports + original 30% in-kind tax = combined 35%) raises mining costs and suppresses miners' willingness to resume production.
Spot Market
Transactions: In the morning session, after SN2609 pulled back from above 436,000 in the night session, downstream and end-users showed more willingness to inquire and price in the 425,000–430,000 range than before, and some solder plants and electronics enterprises completed small-batch transactions in the morning; but after the afternoon futures did not fall further and hovered around 427,000–428,000, chasing buying turned light again. The overall assessment for the day is "release of rigid demand after retreat from highs, not the start of active restocking"—ordinary consumer electronics and regular solder remain in off-season wait-and-see mode, only maintaining rigid purchases; high-end solder demand related to AI servers and advanced packaging has resilience but is not enough to boost spot volume in the short term.
[Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information have been processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment, research, or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]
![Weak Nonfarm Payrolls Trigger Recession Fears and Interest Rate Adjustment Expectations Game; Some Funds Exit, SHFE Tin Pulls Back [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/BBJUa20251217171751.jpg)
